New Nuclear Arms Race Looms as New START Treaty Expires | US, Russia, China

A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launcher was displayed during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow in May 2024.

WASHINGTON – The last formal constraint on U.S. And Russian nuclear arsenals expired last week, triggering concerns of a renewed arms race and a more unstable global security landscape. The New START Treaty, originally signed in 2010, had capped each country’s deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 and limited the total number of delivery systems – including land-based missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers – to 700. With its expiration on February 4th, those limits have been lifted.

The United States currently maintains approximately 5,200 nuclear weapons, both deployed and in storage, although Russia possesses around 5,500, according to available estimates. The treaty’s demise follows years of escalating tensions between Washington and Moscow, and a breakdown in dialogue over arms control.

Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas G. DiNanno, speaking Friday at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, Switzerland, framed the treaty’s expiration as a consequence of the evolving nuclear landscape. DiNanno cited the expansion of nuclear capabilities by other nations as a key factor, specifically accusing China of conducting secret, low-yield nuclear tests in 2020 in violation of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and employing techniques to conceal these detonations.

DiNanno articulated an “America First” approach to arms control, calling for a new, comprehensive regime that would include countries beyond the United States, and Russia. This was a clear reference to China, which has consistently refused to participate in multilateral nuclear arms talks while simultaneously developing its own nuclear arsenal, estimated to consist of roughly 600 warheads, with approximately half possessing strategic, long-range capability. He also signaled the finish of “U.S. Unilateral restraint,” suggesting a potential buildup of American nuclear forces.

The Trump administration had been preparing for the treaty’s expiration. A $15 billion modernization program, authorized through the One Big Stunning Bill Act signed into law in July, is underway. This includes funding for B-21 bombers ($4.5 billion), the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile system ($2.5 billion), a sea-based cruise missile with potential nuclear capabilities ($2 billion), and refurbishment of weapons and infrastructure through the National Nuclear Safety Administration ($4 billion). Trident missiles, deployed on Ohio and Columbia class submarines, can carry up to 12 warheads, though currently configured with eight. Increased production of B-21 bombers will further expand the U.S.’s nuclear delivery capacity.

The expiration of New START occurs amidst a broader proliferation of nuclear weapons. Beyond the United States, Russia, and China, India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea all possess nuclear capabilities. The potential for further proliferation remains a significant concern, with countries like Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Australia possessing the technical capacity to develop nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia’s treaty with Pakistan has also raised concerns about a potential pathway to acquiring nuclear weapons, while Iran continues to deny intentions of pursuing a nuclear bomb, a claim met with skepticism in Washington.

Russia has declared it is no longer bound by limits on the number of nuclear warheads it can deploy, and the Kremlin stated Thursday it would continue to grab a responsible approach to strategic nuclear stability. Still, Russia maintains a numerical advantage in tactical, or short-range, nuclear weapons, raising concerns about their potential utilize and the risk of escalation.

The Trump administration’s pursuit of a missile defense system, dubbed “Golden Dome,” intended to provide an impenetrable shield over the United States, is also expected to exacerbate tensions. Previous attempts at similar systems, such as the Strategic Defense Initiative under President Reagan, failed due to technological limitations and the inability to defend against a range of threats, including bombers, missiles, and hypersonic weapons. Analysts suggest that China, North Korea, and Russia would likely respond to “Golden Dome” by developing more warheads and advanced delivery systems, including low-flying hypersonic missiles and, in Russia’s case, nuclear-powered torpedoes like the Poseidon.