Netanyahu’s Leadership and the Fracturing of the US-Israel Relationship

US Midterm Losses Threaten Netanyahu’s Alliance

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces mounting political fallout following the devastating defeat of Donald Trump’s Republican Party in the US midterm elections. The election results have weakened Netanyahu’s long-standing claim that his personal relationship with Washington guarantees uninterrupted American support. Early analysis attributes the Republican losses in part to the joint US-Israeli war against Iran. Netanyahu’s policies—including the war on Gaza and the military campaign against Iran—have made anything connected to him toxic in American politics. During ongoing coalition negotiations following Israel’s parliamentary election, opposition leaders have blamed Netanyahu directly for this diplomatic isolation. An opposition leader said: “They’re against settler violence; they’re against a government they don’t understand; they’re mainly against Netanyahu – for them, anything connected to him is toxic.”

Analyst Warns Stopping American Funding Forces Defense Budget to Rise

Adding to the diplomatic strain, Avigdor Lieberman claimed on social media that Trump’s election-day announcement that US military aid to Israel would end—the price of his support for Netanyahu, “$3.8bn dollars a year”—had been traded for his endorsement of the prime minister. Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst and senior teaching fellow at King’s College London, warned that stopping American funding will force Israel’s defence budget, already 7 percent of GDP, to rise.

Meanwhile, Israel’s political deadlock persists. The October 27 general election left Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc with 53 seats in parliament, eight short of the 61 needed to form a government. The opposition bloc led by former army Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot got 48 seats, while the Arab-led parties—the United Arab List (Ra’am) and the Joint List—have 19 seats and have both said they will support Eisenkot for prime minister. It is now up to Israeli President Isaac Herzog to nominate a politician to form a government, but he has yet to do so.

Fractured Bipartisan Consensus in Washington

A change in Israel’s leadership may not repair the fractured bipartisan consensus in Washington, experts warn. A government in Israel with Gadi Eisenkot as prime minister may temporarily improve US-Israel relations, but for Israel to repair its relations with the Democratic Party—which were severely damaged by Netanyahu—Israel will have to significantly change its policies, particularly regarding Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, not merely change its leader.