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Washington D.C. – New data released today indicates a notable shift in consumer confidence regarding future economic conditions. A recent survey reveals that 26.74% of respondents anticipate improved financial prospects by January 2025,a decrease of 24% from previous projections.
The findings, compiled from a national sample of over 1,200 adults between November 15th and November 22nd, 2024, by the Institute for Economic Forecasting in collaboration with the National Bureau of Economic Research, highlight growing anxieties surrounding inflation, interest rates, and potential employment fluctuations. The survey specifically focused on household expectations for income, business conditions, and buying conditions over the next 12 months.
Prior forecasts, conducted in July 2024, showed a more optimistic outlook, with 35.18% of consumers predicting a positive economic trajectory.This represents a considerable correction in sentiment, attributed by analysts to recent reports of slowing GDP growth and persistent inflationary pressures in key sectors like housing and energy. Dr. Eleanor Vance,lead economist at the Institute for Economic Forecasting,noted that the decline is notably pronounced among households earning less than $50,000 annually.
The survey also examined regional variations. States in the Southeast and Midwest exhibited the most significant drops in optimism, while the Northeast and Pacific Coast regions showed comparatively more resilience. specifically,Mississippi experienced a 31% decrease in positive projections,while california saw a decline of only 18%.
Looking ahead, economists are closely monitoring key indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to assess the validity of these shifting expectations. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on December 12-13, 2024, where these survey results will likely be a key consideration in determining future monetary policy decisions. Further analysis of the data is expected to be published in the January 2025 edition of the Journal of Economic Perspectives.
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35.18 |
(31 %) |
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