Middle East War: 6-Month Conflict Could Damage Global Economy – TotalEnergies CEO

The global economy faces “real impacts” if the conflict in the Middle East extends beyond six months, according to Patrick Pouyanne, chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies. Pouyanne’s warning, issued Sunday during the China Development Forum in Beijing, comes as Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts oil supplies and fuels concerns about inflation and economic slowdown.

Speaking to Chinese state broadcaster CGTN, Pouyanne detailed the severity of the current disruption. While approximately 20 percent of global oil production normally transits the strait, he stated that “what is stuck today, you have 10 million barrels of oil per day which cannot exit” the Gulf. “And we cannot find the oil elsewhere in the planet,” he added.

Pouyanne indicated that the immediate impact is being absorbed through existing oil inventories, allowing the market to “amortise this shock” for the next three to four months. However, a prolonged conflict presents a significantly greater risk. “If it’s more than six months, we will have some real impacts. All the economies of the world will be damaged,” he said.

The TotalEnergies CEO’s assessment aligns with concerns expressed by other officials. According to a report from the U.S. Treasury, the United States may “escalate to de-escalate” against Iran, signaling a willingness to take further action to secure oil flows.

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is a direct consequence of Iranian retaliation for US-Israeli strikes, severely limiting the world’s oil supply. The situation is unfolding alongside other geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and the Middle East, and recent political shifts in Europe and New Caledonia.

Pouyanne expressed hope for a swift resolution to the conflict, stating, “So again, I hope we’ll find solutions quickly for this war.”