Middle East Power Shift: Abraham Accords, US Role & Regional Realignment (2015-2025)
The aftermath of Israel’s reported attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 has solidified a dramatic reshaping of the Middle East’s power dynamics, a repositioning arguably more significant than any seen since the end of the Cold War, and potentially even echoing the consequences of the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement.
While the Sykes-Picot agreement carved up the region according to colonial interests, the current shift has been driven, ostensibly, by regional actors responding to perceived vacuums and evolving security concerns. This transformation began to take shape between 2015 and 2025, a period marked by competitive multipolarity as global and regional powers recalibrated their positions through conflict, proxy wars, and the breakdown of established security arrangements.
A key catalyst was the Trump administration’s withdrawal in May 2018 from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. This decision, followed by the January 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the concurrent adoption of an “outside-in” approach prioritizing Arab normalization with Israel over Palestinian self-determination, created a new set of incentives. Several Arab governments, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, expressed growing frustration with what they saw as the stagnation of Palestinian leadership and a reluctance to adapt to changing regional realities. Emirati officials, according to reports, framed normalization as a means to “preserve the possibility” of a two-state solution, rather than accepting continued deadlock.
The Trump administration’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017 further signaled a markedly pro-Israel stance. This culminated in the Abraham Accords, which were then pursued further by the Biden administration (2021-2024) with Saudi Arabia as a primary target for normalization.
However, the Biden administration’s subsequent shift in focus towards China, the war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a cautious approach to Iran, coupled with the withdrawal from Afghanistan, led to perceptions of U.S. Disengagement in the Middle East. Despite repeated requests from Gulf states for formal defense guarantees and enhanced air defense integration, the administration hesitated to provide NATO-style security assurances. This perceived lack of commitment reinforced the desire among Gulf leaders to diversify their security partnerships, a gap the Abraham Accords were designed to address.
This vacuum was quickly filled by other international actors. In March 2023, China brokered a reconciliation agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, demonstrating its growing mediating capabilities without resorting to military intervention. Russia consolidated its military presence in Syria, establishing permanent bases at Tartus and Khmeimim, and expanded its influence in Africa through security arrangements linked to the Wagner Group. Russia similarly deepened its strategic alignment with Iran through arms transfers and intelligence sharing. Turkey, meanwhile, pursued a “Neo-Ottoman” approach, extending its influence across Libya, the East Mediterranean, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Iraq.
The regional restructuring reached a critical juncture with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli invasion of Gaza. The conflict rapidly expanded to involve multiple actors, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Iraqi Hezbollah, Iran, and the West Bank. The situation escalated further with the reported Israeli and U.S. Attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025. This action, termed “Operation Rising Lion” by Israel, reportedly exposed limitations in the aspirations of both China and Russia in the region.
The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in January 2025 has signaled a renewed U.S. Commitment to the Middle East, emphasizing deterrence through military strength and the expansion of the Abraham Accords. Washington’s current strategy rests on four pillars: diminishing the influence of Russia and China, deterring Iran, strengthening partnerships with Israel and Turkey, and establishing the Accords as the central security and economic framework for the region. This approach aims to restore U.S. Supremacy and centrality in the region and beyond.