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Mensik vs. Choinski: Qatar Open Odds, Prediction & Stats | Feb 16th

February 16, 2026 Emma Walker – News Editor News

Jakub Mensik, ranked 16th, is heavily favored to defeat Jan Choinski, ranked 124th, in their Round of 32 match at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open on Monday, February 16th. The match, scheduled to take place on a hard court, is slated for 11:55 am local time, according to Sky Sports.

BetMGM Sportsbook currently lists Mensik as a -625 favorite, implying an 86.2% probability of victory, while Choinski is the underdog at +400. Mensik’s odds to win the tournament are +2800, compared to Choinski’s +10000.

Mensik has demonstrated strong performance on hard courts over the past year, achieving a 21-9 match record and winning two tournaments. He boasts an 80.8% winning rate on his service games and converts 44.5% of his break-point opportunities (77 of 173). Choinski, however, has struggled on the surface, with a 2-4 record in four tournaments. His service game success rate is 70.3%, but he only wins 20.6% of his return games. He currently ranks 203rd in break point winning percentage on hard courts, converting 11 of 30 opportunities (36.7%).

Choinski recently suffered a defeat in the Qualification Round 1 of the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament on February 7th, losing to Hugo Grenier (ranked 189th) 5-7, 2-6. This match marks the first career encounter between Mensik, and Choinski.

The match will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel.

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