Lula Leads 2026 Brazil election Polls, Bolsonaro Remains a Strong Contender

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) currently holds the lead in voting intention for the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, according to a recent Datafolha survey released on June 14, 2025. The poll, which surveyed 2,004 voters across 136 cities between June 10 and 11, presents various scenarios where Lula is pitted against potential rivals .

First-round Scenarios: Lula vs. Bolsonaro and Others

The Datafolha survey explores multiple first-round scenarios. In a head-to-head matchup, Lula garners 36% of the vote compared to Jair Bolsonaro’s 35%. When considering other potential candidates, such as Fernando Haddad (Minister of Finance), Lula maintains a lead. Against Tarcisio de Freitas (Governor of São Paulo), Lula polls at 37% versus tarcisio’s 21%. Similarly,lula leads against Michele Bolsonaro (37% to 26%),Flávio Bolsonaro (38% to 20%),and Eduardo Bolsonaro (37% to 20%).

Did You Know? The Brazilian electoral system uses a two-round system. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, a second round is held between the top two candidates.

Second-Round Projections: A Tighter Race

While Lula leads in manny first-round simulations, the second-round scenarios paint a more competitive picture. In a direct contest, Jair Bolsonaro edges out Lula with 45% of the vote compared to Lula’s 44%. However, Lula prevails against Tarcisio de Freitas (43% to 42%), Michele bolsonaro (46% to 42%), Flávio Bolsonaro (47% to 38%), and Eduardo Bolsonaro (46% to 38%). Fernando Haddad also loses to Bolsonaro in a hypothetical second round (40% to 45%).

Pro Tip: Polls are snapshots in time. Voter sentiment can shift significantly due to events, debates, and campaign strategies.

Public Opinion on Lula’s Potential Reelection Bid

The survey also gauged public sentiment regarding Lula’s potential reelection bid in 2026. A significant 66% of respondents believe that Lula will indeed be a candidate. However, a notable 57% expressed the opinion that Lula should not compete in the 2026 election, while 41% believe he should run again.Regarding former President Bolsonaro,67% believe he should give up his candidacy to support another candidate,while 29% think he must apply .

Regional Perceptions and Key Issues

Across different regions, voters prioritize different issues. In the Northeast, Lula is seen favorably in education and housing, but Bolsonaro is perceived as stronger on inflation. A similar dynamic plays out in the Midwest. In the Southeast, Lula is considered better at combating poverty, but inflation remains a concern. The South mirrors this trend,with Lula leading in job creation but lagging in perceptions of inflation management.

Legal Challenges Facing Lula and Bolsonaro

Both Lula and Bolsonaro face legal hurdles. Lula is currently ineligible to run for office until 2030 due to a conviction by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for abuse of power in the 2022 elections. Bolsonaro also faces potential legal consequences, including a possible sentence from the Federal Supreme Court (STF) for his alleged role in the attempted violent abolition of the Democratic Rule of Law.

Rejection Rates

Both Lula and Bolsonaro have high rejection rates. Lula’s rejection rate stands at 46%, while Bolsonaro’s is 43%. Other potential candidates, such as Eduardo Bolsonaro (32%), flávio Bolsonaro (31%), Michele Bolsonaro (30%), and Fernando Haddad (29%), have lower rejection rates.