LIU vs. Arizona: NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions 2026 | SportsLine

San Diego, CA – The Arizona Wildcats, boasting a 32-2 record and the No. 2 ranking in the Associated Press poll, will face the Long Island University Sharks in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament West Region on Friday at Viejas Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on TNT.

Long Island (24-10), champions of the Northeast Conference (NEC) Tournament after a 79-70 victory over Mercyhurst on March 10, enters the tournament on a five-game winning streak. Arizona secured its place in the tournament by winning both the Big 12 regular season and tournament titles, culminating in a 79-74 win over Houston on March 14.

This marks Long Island’s eighth appearance in the NCAA Tournament, and their second meeting against Arizona. The Wildcats won the first encounter, 62-61, in 1951, according to ESPN data. Arizona finished atop the Big 12 standings with a 16-2 conference record, while Long Island dominated the NEC with a 15-3 mark.

BetMGM Sportsbook lists Arizona as a significant 30.5-point favorite, with an over/under of 148.5 total points. The Sharks are substantial underdogs, with moneyline odds of +6750 compared to Arizona’s -100000.

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which has a strong recent record in predicting college basketball outcomes, the Over on the total points (148.5) is the favored bet. The model projects the combined score to exceed 148.5 points in 56% of simulations, citing the Over hitting in five of Long Island’s last eight games and three of Arizona’s last four.

The model forecasts that Long Island will have three players score at least 13.6 points, led by Greg Gordon with a projected 14 points. Arizona is expected to have seven players reach double figures, with Brayden Burries leading the way at 16.7 points. The model projects a final score of Arizona 90, Long Island 58.

The SportsLine Projection Model likewise indicates that one side of the spread is likely to cover in over 60% of simulations, a pick available exclusively at SportsLine.