A fresh study estimates the death toll from Israel’s military operations in Gaza to be significantly higher than previously reported, reaching over 75,000 people in the first 16 months of the conflict. Published Wednesday in The Lancet Global Health , the research challenges official figures and points to a far greater scale of loss of life.
The study, led by Michael Spagat, a professor of economics at Royal Holloway, University of London, and a board member of Action on Armed Violence, found 75,200 “violent deaths” in Gaza between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025. Researchers also estimated an additional 16,300 deaths resulting from disease, accidents, or other causes indirectly linked to the conflict, bringing the total estimated deaths to over 91,000.
The findings indicate that the actual death toll is at least 25,000 higher than the figure reported by Gaza’s Ministry of Health (MoH) at the time. While Gaza health officials currently report a death toll exceeding 72,000, a figure Israeli authorities recently acknowledged as accurate after initial denials, the Lancet study suggests even that number may be an undercount.
“The combined evidence suggests that, as of January 5, 2025, 3-4% of the population of the Gaza Strip had been killed violently and there have been a substantial number of nonviolent deaths caused indirectly by the conflict,” the study states. The researchers contend their findings “contradict claims that the MoH has inflated the death toll from the war in the Gaza Strip,” asserting that the MoH provides “conservative, reliable figures while working under extraordinary constraints.”
The study is described as “the first independent population survey of mortality in the Gaza Strip” and builds on previous research indicating underreporting of deaths. A prior study published in The Lancet in January 2025 suggested that the death toll reported by Gaza health officials over the first year and a half of Israel’s assault was likely an undercount of 41%.
Spagat, internationally recognized for his work on war mortality estimation – including studies of Kosovo and Iraq – cautioned that a complete accounting of the deaths in Gaza may never be possible. “It will be a long time before we obtain to a full accounting of all the people killed in Gaza, if we ever get there,” he told The Guardian on Thursday.
The findings come as Israel prepares to enforce a ban on 37 aid groups operating in Gaza in March, a move that raises concerns about further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and potentially increasing nonviolent deaths.
