Markets Eye Jobs Data and Economic Bill

Independence Day holiday shortens trading week.

This week, investors will be closely monitoring economic indicators and legislative developments, even with a shortened trading week due to the Independence Day holiday. The highlight will be the June jobs report, alongside ongoing congressional efforts to pass budget legislation.

Key Labor Market Data

The June jobs report is anticipated amidst concerns about potential slowdowns in hiring. May saw employers adding more positions than expected; however, there are expectations that the labor market might decelerate because of tariff uncertainties. A recent survey indicated heightened worries regarding the employment landscape.

The Federal Reserve has maintained current interest rates, citing robust job growth. However, pressures for rate cuts are mounting, particularly from President Trump. Fresh labor market data could significantly influence decisions about future rate adjustments.

Legislative and Trade Developments

Attention will be on President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” as the Senate aims to pass it by Trump’s deadline. Trade policy updates will be closely watched, especially with a July 9 deadline for negotiating trade deals. Recently, Trump stated that trade discussions with Canada had concluded.

Earnings and Deliveries

Constellation Brands (STZ), the producer of Modelo and Corona beers, is set to announce earnings on Tuesday. Tesla (TSLA) is expected to release June deliveries data on Wednesday, offering insights into the performance of its car business for the first half of the year.

Market Schedule

In observance of Independence Day, markets will be closed on Friday. Trading will also conclude early on Thursday before the holiday.

Economic Calendar Highlights

Here’s a rundown of key economic events this week:

• Monday, June 30: Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for June; Federal Reserve’s Austan Goolsbee speaks; Progress Software (PRGS) earnings.
• Tuesday, July 1: ISM manufacturing index for June; S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI for June; Construction spending for May; Job openings for May; Earnings from Constellation Brands, MSC Industrial Direct (MSM), and Greenbrier (GBX).
• Wednesday, July 2: ADP employment report for June; Tesla June deliveries data; Unifirst (UNF) and Franklin Covey (FC) report earnings.
• Thursday, July 3: U.S. employment report for June; Initial jobless claims; U.S. trade deficit for May; S&P final U.S. services PMI for June; Factory orders for May; ISM services index for June; Early market closure.
• Friday, July 4: Markets closed for Independence Day.

Shifting Priorities

Increasingly, Americans are foregoing college. According to a recent study, 56% of adults without a college degree believe it’s possible to be successful without one, citing cost and potential debt as major deterrents (Lumina Foundation).