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Nearly a Million Jobs Set to Be Removed From Recent Labor Market Data
WASHINGTON – The Labor Department is expected to significantly revise downward its previously reported job growth figures for May, June, and July, potentially erasing as many as 900,000 jobs initially counted, according to economists and Federal Reserve officials. The revisions, slated for release next week, stem from incorporating more thorough data sources like employer surveys and unemployment insurance claims not available during the initial monthly reports.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) routinely adjusts its labor market statistics,but the scale of these upcoming revisions is drawing heightened scrutiny. Initial estimates had shown 1.76 million jobs added in July, but the revised figure is now expected to be approximately 860,000 lower.large downward revisions to May and June figures previously prompted President Donald Trump to fire the head of the BLS, alleging the revisions were “rigged.” This action raised concerns among experts regarding potential political interference in the bureau’s statistical production.
Economists are closely monitoring the data for insights into the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the labor market. Higher tariffs have created economic uncertainty, causing some businesses to delay hiring. Slower hiring could prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to maintain low unemployment.
Federal Reserve Governor christopher Waller anticipates the revised BLS data will indicate job losses in May,June,and July. He was one of two members who voted to cut the central bank’s key interest rate at last month’s policy meeting.
However, the impact of next week’s preliminary revision on the Fed’s next interest rate decision may be limited. The revisions cover a period prior to the full implementation of Trump’s tariffs and won’t reflect their effect on the job market.
“The announcement looks set to paint a more fragile picture of recent hiring given the further loss of momentum in job growth in the months following the benchmark period,” economists at Wells Fargo, led by Sarah House, wrote in a recent commentary.The final revisions will not be finalized until February.
