Iran’s Terrorism Threat: Retaliation, Desperation & US Targets
Over 9,000 targets have been hit in Operation Epic Fury against Iran, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), as fears mount that Tehran, reeling from recent leadership losses and military setbacks, will escalate its utilize of terrorism both abroad and potentially within the United States. The warning follows a broadcast from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s Qods Force stating, “the enemy should know that their happy days are over and they will no longer be safe anywhere in the world, not even in their own homes.”
Intelligence assessments indicate Iran has already been linked to plots in Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that Iran may be attempting to activate sleeper cells within the United States, noting, “We know a lot of different things that have happened that have been very bad,” and that Washington is “very much on top of it.”
Iran has a long history of employing terrorism as a tool of foreign policy, targeting perceived enemies including Iranian dissidents, Israelis, Jews, European and Gulf state diplomats, and the United States. While historically practicing a degree of caution to maintain plausible deniability and avoid retaliation, the recent assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and discussions of regime change in Washington and Jerusalem have reportedly altered Tehran’s calculus.
According to a senior Israeli National Security Council official, Iran has fundamentally changed its operational doctrine, removing constraints and instructing agents to carry out any possible attacks. Iranian officials “feel they have nothing to lose,” the official explained, noting a shift from calculated plotting to opportunistic action. This has led to a widespread recruitment effort among organized crime groups, mercenaries, Iranian agents, and Shia militants from Azerbaijan and Afghanistan, as well as attempts to inspire lone actors.
U.S. Intelligence officials concur with this assessment. Encrypted communications intercepted by U.S. Authorities, believed to originate in Iran, may have served as “an operational trigger” activating “sleeper assets” following Khamenei’s death. The intelligence community is also concerned about potential attacks by individuals inspired by Iranian and proxy incitement, particularly after Shia religious leaders in Iran issued decrees calling for revenge.
Recent weeks have seen thwarted Iranian operations targeting Israeli diplomats in the United Arab Emirates. Qatari authorities have arrested cells accused of collecting intelligence on critical infrastructure and training with drones. In the UK, one Iranian and three dual British-Iranian citizens have been arrested on counterterrorism charges related to surveillance of Jewish community locations. Azerbaijan’s State Security Service also reported foiling plots targeting an oil pipeline, the Israeli embassy in Baku, a Jewish community leader, and a synagogue, identifying IRGC Colonel Ali Asgar Bordbar Sherami as a key organizer according to Alma Research and Education Center.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) predicted in its 2025 threat assessment that Iran “will continue to directly threaten U.S. Persons globally and remains committed to its decade-long effort to develop surrogate networks inside the United States.” This assessment remains relevant following the recent military engagements between the U.S. And Israel and Iran.
Prior to the current conflict, Iran reportedly threatened to “activate sleeper-cell terror inside the United States” if the U.S. Military struck Iranian nuclear facilities. While that threat did not materialize, European authorities subsequently exposed plots targeting Israeli and U.S. Embassies in Sweden and Jewish institutions in Germany.
The Qods Force has a history of plotting attacks, including a 2011 attempt to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States. Following that incident, the U.S. Intelligence community concluded that some Iranian officials, potentially including Khamenei, were willing to conduct attacks within the U.S. In response to perceived threats. The Qods Force established Unit 400 specifically to carry out attacks against countries attempting to undermine Iran’s nuclear program.
The 2020 killing of IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani prompted further plotting, with U.S. Law enforcement disrupting multiple Iranian-backed plots since then. Iran has sought to recruit criminals and establish a “homeland option” involving operatives and proxies positioned to carry out attacks within the U.S. In 2024, a Pakistani man with IRGC training was convicted in Brooklyn of terrorism and murder-for-hire, with targets including U.S. Politicians.
As the war continues, and with its leadership weakened, Iran may resort to increasingly desperate measures, potentially including attacks on soft targets and more sophisticated attempts against harder targets. U.S. Officials acknowledge the danger, emphasizing that Iran’s desperation increases the likelihood of employing terrorism against those it perceives as undermining the regime.