Iran After Khamenei: Power Vacuum, IRGC Control, and Prospects for Change

On March 19, 2026, mourners gathered in Tehran for the funeral of Ali Larijani, Iran’s security chief, following a series of attacks by Israel and the United States that have destabilized the country and left its leadership in question. Larijani’s death came less than two weeks after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, an event that triggered the current crisis and initiated a succession process already fraught with uncertainty.

The death of Khamenei, the architect of modern Iran, prompted the swift naming of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts on March 9. However, questions remain about his ability to consolidate power and navigate the complex political landscape, particularly given reports, cited by U.S. Officials, that he may be wounded. The transition occurs amidst a power vacuum, as the late Supreme Leader was uniquely positioned to manage the competing factions within the Iranian government.

Currently, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appears best positioned to exert influence. The IRGC, strengthened under Khamenei’s leadership, possesses the resources and organizational capacity to impose its will. This prospect raises concerns about a continuation of hard-line policies and a further entrenchment of conflict with Israel, the United States and internal opposition groups. However, the IRGC’s policies have demonstrably failed to protect the country or improve the lives of its citizens, creating an opening for reformist elements within the regime.

The IRGC’s rise to prominence was a decades-long process, beginning with Khamenei’s ascension to the Supreme Leadership in 1989. Initially considered a less-than-ideal candidate due to his lack of Khomeini’s religious stature, Khamenei strategically aligned himself with the IRGC, bolstering its influence in domestic politics and society. This partnership solidified by the early 2000s, effectively marginalizing rival factions and establishing the IRGC as a central pillar of the government. Khamenei’s support allowed the IRGC to suppress pro-reform movements and consolidate its control over key sectors of the Iranian economy.

The recent attacks by Israel and the United States have further complicated the situation. The strikes, beginning on February 28, targeted Iranian military infrastructure and personnel, including key figures within the IRGC. The assassination of Ali Larijani, a prominent government official who stepped into the spotlight following Khamenei’s death, underscores the scale of the disruption. These events have weakened the IRGC’s ranks and created opportunities for alternative voices within the regime to emerge.

President Masoud Pezeshkian, along with figures like former Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami, represent potential alternatives. Pezeshkian has reportedly sought cooperation with the IRGC to address the country’s economic challenges, but has faced resistance from hardliners within the organization. These pragmatists could potentially pursue a more conciliatory foreign policy, offering concessions on Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities in exchange for economic relief. However, they lack the military power of the IRGC and face a deeply entrenched conservative establishment.

The United States remains skeptical of significant regime change in Tehran. According to Reuters, U.S. Officials believe that the current power structure is likely to remain largely intact despite the recent upheaval. This assessment suggests that Washington anticipates continued challenges in negotiating with Iran and addressing its regional ambitions.

The future trajectory of Iran remains uncertain. While the IRGC currently holds a dominant position, the recent attacks and the weakening of its leadership create an opening for reformist elements to gain influence. The ability of these pragmatists to appeal to the Iranian people and offer a viable alternative to the current course will be crucial in determining the country’s future. As of this writing, the Assembly of Experts has not signaled any intention to revisit the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei.