okay, here’s a breakdown of the information from the article, focusing on the odds for the CFP expansion, and a summary of the other points raised.
CFP Expansion Odds (as perceived by the author, Stewart Mandel):
* 12 Teams: the heavy favorite. Mandel states it’s more likely than Indiana being -8.5 in a game. He believes this is the most probable outcome for next year (2026).
* 16 Teams: A strong possibility, pushed by SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey (5 automatic qualifiers + 11 at-large). However,it’s being blocked by the Big Ten.
* 24 Teams: The Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti is pushing for this, possibly with all conferences having equal automatic qualifiers or none at all.Mandel believes there’s surprisingly more support for this model than people realize, and it’s where things are ultimately headed, but he deems it implausible for implementation by next fall due to logistical challenges (scheduling, TV deals, potentially eliminating conference championship games, play-in games).
In essence, Mandel’s implied odds are:
* 12 Teams: 70-80%
* 16 Teams: 15-20%
* 24 Teams: 5-10% (for 2026, but higher probability for the future)
Other key Takeaways from the Article:
* Big Ten & SEC Control: The Big Ten and SEC commissioners have the final say on the CFP format. Their differing visions are the primary roadblock.
* Timing Issues: The late timing of the CFP games (late December/January) is hurting viewership,more so than off-field issues with players.
* Oregon’s Playoff Losses: Dan Lanning is a good coach,but has unfortunatly run into teams that went on to win/reach the national championship.The Indiana loss was an outlier due to specific circumstances.
* Curt Cignetti: Expect a very expressive reaction from curt Cignetti if Indiana wins.
* Historical Viewpoint: The author referenced a 2011 mailbag where he dismissed the idea of a 16-team playoff, highlighting how much the landscape has changed.
