Hormuz Strait: Supply Chain Risk & LNG Shortages – Risk.net

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies, is facing a potential tipping point as disruptions to shipping continue and international powers signal a willingness to intervene, though without a clear plan. A Malta-flagged container ship was hit by a projectile while transiting the strait earlier this month, prompting its crew to abandon the vessel, according to reports.

Traffic through the strait has “collapsed,” with hundreds of ships stranded or rerouted, according to a situational risk map published March 17, 2026. Iranian authorities declared the strait “closed” and have repeatedly attacked merchant vessels, dramatically reducing transits and causing major liners to suspend passages. Approximately 90 ships, including oil tankers, crossed the waterway in the first two weeks of March, significantly below normal levels, but indicating some traffic is continuing on a selective basis.

The crisis began on February 28, 2026, following strikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian targets, immediately raising concerns about the safety of shipping routes in the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, handling roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, and the resulting impact on shipping, insurance, and commodity markets is already being felt.

European nations – including Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands – and Japan issued a joint statement on March 20, 2026, condemning attacks on commercial vessels and expressing readiness to support efforts to ensure safe passage through the waterway and stabilize global energy markets. However, the statement did not detail how they would contribute or the extent of their commitment.

Naval escorts are under consideration, but officials indicate they will only begin when “militarily possible,” potentially weeks away. An agent-based model suggests that delays and shortages are likely to accelerate after four weeks if the situation does not improve. The situation echoes an energy emergency faced by Germany in October 2022, when cuts to Russian gas imports led to tankers waiting offshore due to a lack of LNG processing terminals.