Hawaii vs. Arkansas: NCAA Tournament Picks, Odds & Model Predictions 2026

PORTLAND, Ore. – The Arkansas Razorbacks, seeded fourth in the West Region, face a challenge from the 13th-seeded Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament on Thursday at the Moda Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. Eastern Time.

Arkansas (26-8) enters the tournament on a five-game winning streak, having secured the Southeastern Conference Tournament title with an 86-75 victory over Vanderbilt on Sunday. The Razorbacks are fourth nationally in scoring, averaging 89.9 points per game, and boast a 50.0% field goal percentage. Darius Acuff Jr., the SEC Player of the Year, has been a key contributor, averaging 25.8 points over his last ten games and totaling 91 points and 23 assists across three SEC Tournament contests.

Hawaii (24-8) arrives in Portland having won six of its last seven games, culminating in a 71-64 win over UC Irvine in the Big West Tournament final on March 15. The Rainbow Warriors finished second in the Big West regular season with a 14-6 record. They are known for their resilience in close games, having prevailed in three of four contests decided by three points or fewer this season.

The Razorbacks are favored by 14.5 points, with the over/under set at 158.5 points, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. This marks only the second all-time meeting between the two programs, with Arkansas holding a 2-0 series lead.

SportsLine’s Projection Model, which has a strong recent track record in predicting college basketball outcomes, has simulated the Hawaii vs. Arkansas matchup 10,000 times. The model predicts the total score will exceed 158.5 points, a result occurring in 65% of Arkansas’s games this season and in five of Hawaii’s last seven. The model projects four Hawaii players to score over 10 points, led by Dre Bullock at 14.8 points, and five Arkansas players to reach double figures, with Darius Acuff Jr. Projected to lead with 22.9 points. The simulation suggests a combined score of 161 points, clearing the over in 53.4% of simulations.

The model also indicates that one side of the spread is likely to hit in nearly 60% of simulations, though the specific pick is available exclusively at SportsLine.