Haruna Kasolo’s Tactics Crush Kyagulanyi’s NUP in Buganda
Analysis of the Provided Text: A Shift in Political Dynamics in Uganda
This text details a meaningful political shift in Uganda, specifically focusing on the 2024 election results and the resurgence of support for President Museveni and the NRM (National Resistance Movement) in the Buganda region, traditionally a stronghold for the opposition NUP (National Unity Platform) led by Kyagulanyi. Here’s a breakdown of the key takeaways:
1. Kasolo’s Impact & NUP’s Containment:
* Haruna Kasolo’s Mobilization: The text heavily credits Haruna Kasolo,the new regional chairman,with a triumphant mobilization strategy that significantly improved Museveni’s performance in Buganda.
* Checked NUP Power: While Kyagulanyi still won some districts, the NUP’s overall political “machine” was demonstrably weakened and its influence contained. The text suggests a deliberate effort to counter NUP’s momentum.
2. Museveni’s Gains in Buganda:
* District-Level Wins: Museveni secured wins in 17 districts, including key areas in Busoga.
* Performance Enhancement: Crucially, even in districts were Kyagulanyi won, Museveni’s vote share increased substantially compared to the 2021 election. The text provides specific percentage increases in numerous districts (Kiboga, mubende, Rakai, etc.).
* Narrow Margins: Kyagulanyi’s victories were often by small margins, indicating a closing gap.
3. Strategic Approach & Future Potential:
* Beyond Money & force: The author argues that Museveni needs to move beyond simply offering financial incentives or using force (tear gas) to engage with young people. They suggest ”Baraza-like meetings” – open forums for dialog – as a more effective approach.
* Reclaiming Support: The text is optimistic that sustained mobilization, improved service delivery, and genuine engagement can restore NRM support in buganda to its pre-2021 levels (75% or higher).
* Lessons from the North: The success of Musevenists like moses Byaruhanga and Rebecca Otengo in winning over previously opposed regions (Lango, Acholi, West Nile) is presented as a model for Buganda.The author argues that Buganda’s grievances are less deeply rooted,making reconciliation easier.
4. Parliamentary Success for NRM:
* MP Seat Dominance: The NRM won a majority of parliamentary seats in Buganda (53 vs. NUP’s 41).
* Buganda Caucus Control: This victory allows the NRM to regain control of the Buganda caucus in Parliament, previously led by Muwanga Kivumbi (who was defeated).
* Strategic Self-reliant Win: The victory of Eriasa Mukiibi Sserunjogi (an independent candidate with NRM ties) is highlighted as further strengthening the NRM’s position.
Overall Tone & Outlook:
The text is clearly pro-NRM and pro-Museveni. It frames the election results as a significant victory for the ruling party and a testament to Kasolo’s effective leadership. It downplays the extent of Kyagulanyi’s wins and emphasizes the positive trends for Museveni. The language used (“reclaimed districts,” “comfortably won,” “not in vain”) reinforces this positive framing.
In essence, the text paints a picture of a political comeback for Museveni in Buganda, driven by strategic mobilization and a shift in voter sentiment. It suggests that the NUP’s initial momentum has been successfully countered, and the NRM is poised to regain its dominance in the region.