Global Warming Accelerates: Expert Warns of Tipping Points & Korea’s Vulnerability
The pace of global warming has doubled in the last decade, according to a discussion on the CBS economic program “CBS Economic Research Institute” on March 20, 2026. The program featured a conversation between economist Hong Jong-ho and former Director of the National Institute of Meteorological Science, Cho Cheon-ho.
Cho stated that the global average temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius last year, but that figure requires removing natural variations like El Niño and La Niña, as well as factors like solar cycles and volcanic eruptions. “After removing all natural factors, the temperature has risen by 1.3 degrees Celsius since the industrial revolution,” Cho explained. He noted that between 1850 and 1970, the temperature rose by 0.05 degrees Celsius every ten years, accelerating to 0.2 degrees Celsius between 1970 and 2015 and further increasing to 0.35 degrees Celsius per decade since 2015.
The discussion referenced a recent report from the European Union’s Copernicus program, which showed the 1.5-degree threshold being crossed and recrossed over the past three years. Cho attributed these fluctuations to El Niño’s impact on natural variability, but emphasized the underlying trend.
Hong Jong-ho raised concerns about “tipping points” – thresholds beyond which changes grow irreversible – potentially being triggered if the 1.5-degree limit is consistently exceeded. Cho identified coral reefs as one of the first ecosystems likely to experience a tipping point, with an estimated 70% facing extinction at 1.5 degrees Celsius and nearly 99% at 2 degrees Celsius. The loss of coral reefs, he explained, would significantly impact marine ecosystems and food supplies, as they support approximately 25% of marine life.
Another critical tipping point, according to Cho, involves the cracking of glaciers in West Antarctica and Greenland. While scientists have traditionally modeled glacial melt based on surface temperatures, the fracturing of glaciers presents a more unpredictable and rapid threat. “If the Greenland ice sheet melts completely, sea levels will rise by about 7 meters. If the Antarctic ice sheet melts, they could rise by 60 meters,” Cho stated. He likened the fracturing of glaciers to breaking a sugar cube, accelerating the melting process.
Cho indicated that the scientific community now anticipates exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius around 2030, a timeline that has been accelerated from previous estimates of 2040 and 2050. A 2021 IPCC report had initially projected the 1.5-degree threshold would be crossed before 2040, but the continued lack of significant emissions reductions prompted a revised forecast.
The conversation then turned to South Korea’s 2035 carbon reduction plan, currently undergoing public discussion. Cho criticized the government’s approach, suggesting a preference for delaying significant emissions cuts to future generations. He argued that this strategy would place a greater burden on younger generations to rely on expensive and unproven carbon removal technologies. “Our survival does not exist within our territory,” Cho stated, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global climate challenges.
Looking ahead, Cho predicted increasingly severe summer heatwaves and ecological shifts in the Korean peninsula. He highlighted the experiences of *haenyeo* (female divers) as a stark indicator of marine changes, noting their observations of drastically altered underwater ecosystems. He also pointed to the northward migration of crops like apples and citrus fruits as evidence of a changing climate.