Global Stocks Rally on US Peace Proposal – Markets March 25, 2026

Global stock markets surged and oil prices retreated Wednesday as the Trump administration presented a 15-point peace proposal aimed at de-escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude fell below $99 a barrel, while European stocks notched their first three-day advance since the outbreak of conflict.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.9% in early trading, with European and Asian indexes climbing more than 1.5%. The yield on ten-year Treasury notes dropped four basis points to 4.31%, signaling increased investor confidence. Gold and Bitcoin similarly saw gains, while the dollar weakened.

The US proposal, details of which remain largely undisclosed, has sparked optimism among traders that President Trump is actively pursuing a resolution to the war. However, Iran has yet to officially respond to the plan and has continued attacks on neighboring states, leading some investors to remain cautious about the prospects for a lasting ceasefire.

“There’s a rebound in risk appetite this morning, which makes sense given the newsflow, but for us this is no time to buy the rally,” said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions. Boucher suggested algorithmic trading was reacting to keywords associated with peace and negotiation.

In US pre-market trading, mining companies such as Newmont Corp. And Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Were among the biggest gainers. Arm Holdings Plc experienced a significant jump of 12% following plans to generate approximately $15 billion annually within five years from chip sales.

Equity strategists have recently increased their projections for US corporate profits. Data compiled by Morgan Stanley indicates that earnings in the S&P 500 Index are expected to rise by 20% over the next 12 months – a level historically observed only during economic recoveries. Mike Wilson, chief US equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, wrote that this supports the view that the recent oil price spike is unlikely to trigger a broader economic downturn.

Bond markets also rallied, with yields on two-year German notes declining seven basis points to 2.59%. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated the ECB could absorb a limited, short-lived shock to energy prices without immediately adjusting monetary policy.

Bloomberg macro strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning cautioned against excessive optimism regarding the commodity price pullback, noting that a return to pre-conflict levels of optimism in European equities will be challenging while yields remain elevated.

Several corporate developments accompanied the market rally. SpaceX is reportedly preparing to file a prospectus for an initial public offering this week, potentially marking one of the year’s most anticipated market debuts. Merck & Co. Agreed to acquire Terns Pharmaceuticals Inc. In a $6.7 billion deal, strengthening its pipeline ahead of patent expirations on a key cancer treatment. Pop Mart International Group Ltd. Shares fell nearly 22% after full-year revenue growth remained heavily reliant on sales of Labubu figures, disappointing investors who had hoped for broader franchise success. SK Hynix Inc. Is seeking to list American Depositary Receipts in what could be one of the largest US debuts by a foreign company, driven by the increasing demand for memory chips in the artificial intelligence sector.

As of 8:06 a.m. New York time, S&P 500 futures were up 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, and futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5%. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.6%, and the MSCI World Index increased 0.5%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%, while the euro remained stable at $1.1608. The British pound was little changed at $1.3420, and the Japanese yen held steady at 158.82 per dollar.

Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $71,789.63, and Ether increased 2% to $2,191.01. The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.31%, Germany’s 10-year yield fell eight basis points to 2.94%, and Britain’s 10-year yield dropped 12 basis points to 4.84%. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $87.33 a barrel, and spot gold rose 2.3% to $4,576.25 an ounce.

The Iranian government has not yet issued a formal response to the US peace proposal.