France Local Elections: Second Round Key Races & 2027 Presidential Bellwether

Voting is underway across France in the second round of municipal elections, a contest keenly watched as a potential indicator of national political sentiment ahead of the 2027 presidential race. Cities including Paris and Marseille are at the center of attention, with both the far-right National Rally (RN) and the radical left hoping to capitalize on the results.

Whereas local elections are often determined by issues specific to each municipality, analysts suggest they can provide valuable insights into the national mood. “They create momentum, provide a boost and establish a narrative,” said Frédéric Dabi of the polling institute Ifop, according to reports.

In Paris, incumbent Socialist candidate Emmanuel Grégoire faces a tight race against conservative Rachida Dati. Grégoire secured 38% of the vote in the first round, with Dati trailing at 25.5%. The withdrawal of far-right candidate Sarah Knafo and the consolidation of support behind Dati from moderate rightwinger Pierre-Yves Bournazel has potentially unified the capital’s right-wing vote. However, Grégoire has refused to form an alliance with Sophia Chikirou of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical-left France Unbowed (LFI), a decision that could prove pivotal. A victory for Grégoire would likely reinforce the mainstream left’s reluctance to collaborate with LFI, while a loss could be interpreted as a signal of the potential for a broader right-wing coalition.

The situation in Marseille is markedly different. Franck Allisio, the RN candidate, finished just one percentage point behind the outgoing centre-left mayor, Benoît Payan, in the first round. Payan, like Grégoire, rejected an alliance with LFI, but its candidate, Sébastien Delogu, withdrew in an effort to prevent an RN victory. A conservative candidate remains in the race despite calls from the RN for their withdrawal.

The RN, currently the largest single party in the French parliament, too has high hopes in Toulon and Nice. In Nice, Éric Ciotti, running as a joint candidate for his breakaway conservative party and the RN, is the frontrunner. Bruno Retailleau, the national leader of the main conservative party, Les Républicains (LR), has declined to support the outgoing centre-right mayor of Nice, potentially paving the way for a conservative and far-right alliance in the upcoming national elections.

Elsewhere, the political landscape is shifting. In Strasbourg, the Socialist party has merged its list with Macron’s centrists to counter a threat from LFI. In Lille, the Socialists are uniting with the Greens to strive and block the radical-left party. However, potential successes for LFI are anticipated in cities such as Avignon, Brest, Nantes, and Toulouse. The northern city of Roubaix could also spot a win for LFI without an alliance.

The port city of Le Havre presents another key race, where the current mayor, former prime minister Édouard Philippe, is expected to retain his position and is being discussed as a potential presidential contender.

Polling stations opened at 8:00 am local time and will close at 8:00 pm in major cities. Results are expected throughout the evening.