Washington D.C. – November 22, 2025 – The Federal Reserve’s December meeting is shaping up to be one of the most closely contested in recent memory, with analysts predicting a razor-thin decision on interest rates as internal debate intensifies.Market observers are now meticulously tracking voting intentions, with opinions split on whether further cuts are warranted.
Recent meetings reveal a growing divide within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At a mid-September meeting, President trump appointee Director Mylan advocated for a 0.50 point interest rate cut, opposing the eventual 0.25 point reduction and voting against it in October for the same reason. Kansas City Fed president Schmidt similarly dissented in October, arguing that additional rate cuts risked reigniting inflation and favoring a hold.
This cautious sentiment has gained traction. Five of the 12 voting members at this year’s FOMC meetings are currently leaning towards maintaining current interest rates at the December meeting. Director William Barr, prioritizing the labor market, expressed the need for “caution and careful” monetary policy, voicing concerns about further cuts. Even traditionally dovish voices are signaling a potential pause,with Chicago Fed president Goolsby stating he’d be prepared to vote against a cut if necessary – a first in his nearly three-year tenure.
Despite the increased dissent, Goolsby characterized the internal debate as a “healthy sign.”
The outcome remains uncertain.While some, like brett Ryan, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, believe recent comments have effectively signaled a halt to rate cuts, others remain unconvinced. “I think it’s still 50-50,” stated Sahm, reflecting the prevailing ambiguity.
