Ethiopia and Eritrea Near War, Crisis Group Reported Oct 12
Ethiopia and Eritrea stand perilously close to all-out war as heavy fighting inches toward their shared border, raising the threat of a resurgent interstate conflict in the Horn of Africa, crisisgroup.org reported on 12 October 2026.
The Resurgence of Conflict in Tigray
The risk of direct conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea rose sharply in late September as war engulfed the Tigray region. On 20 September 2026, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and six other groups announced a new “alliance for survival” aimed at toppling Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, which they view as authoritarian and centralized.
Two days later, Ethiopia conducted a large drone raid on sites in southern Tigray where officials believed the TPLF was massing for an attack. On 23 September 2026, the TPLF mounted large-scale offensives against the federal government, trying to join forces with two of its allies, the Amhara Fano and the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front.
Those first-wave attacks made gains, but Ethiopian forces quickly regrouped. The federal military steadily pushed the Tigrayans back, recording a string of battlefield victories and capturing most of Tigray.
On 3 October 2026, federal forces and their allies took Mekelle without a fight. As the TPLF withdrew, the war’s front line shifted toward the group’s strongholds in the northern mountains near the border with Eritrea.
Ethiopia and Eritrea Move Toward Frontal Combat
For the first time since 2000, when Ethiopia and Eritrea ended their last war, the two neighbors now seem poised to engage in frontal combat. Frictions between the two are neither sudden nor surprising, even if the present rift marks a radical turnaround from the friendship they shared during the 2020–2022 Tigray war.
For more than a year, Addis Ababa has denounced Asmara and its allies in the Sudanese army for backing rebel groups in Ethiopia, particularly the TPLF. Following the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which left the TPLF largely intact, Eritrea grew incensed that its critical national interests were not respected.
Bilateral relations deteriorated further as Prime Minister Abiy argued publicly that Ethiopia needs to restore sovereign access to the sea. Asmara viewed this rhetoric as a threat to seize Eritrea’s coastline, especially its southern port of Assab, by armed force. With relations souring, Eritrea and the TPLF explored establishing a common front against Addis Ababa.
Ethiopia Expels Diplomats and Severs Ties with Eritrea
As hostilities intensified, Ethiopia and Eritrea edged closer to direct conflict. Ethiopia accused Eritrea of masterminding the TPLF’s war effort and deploying forces in the Afar region and northern Tigray.
On 1 October 2026, Ethiopia expelled all Eritrean diplomats from the country, accusing Asmara of direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence, and severed all diplomatic ties. Media reports indicated that Eritrean units passed through Adigrat, located 30 kilometers south of the Ethiopian border, before withdrawing toward the border following reported drone strikes on their vehicles.
On 9 October 2026, Ethiopia wrote a letter to the UN Security Council stating it was taking measures of self-defence in response to Eritrea’s deployment of infantry and mechanized units across the border. Eritrea responded on 10 October 2026 with its own letter accusing Ethiopia of declaring a war of aggression. The UN Security Council scheduled a closed-door session to discuss the crisis on 13 October 2026.
Diplomatic Efforts and the Risk of Wider Regional Conflagration
Pulling Ethiopia and Eritrea back from the brink of war remains an extreme priority to prevent a deadly chain of interconnected conflicts across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin. International capitals are pressing both sides to avoid escalation.
Without urgent diplomatic intervention, a new war between Ethiopia and Eritrea risks spreading to the Red Sea, disrupting a strategic waterway and entangling regional powers including Sudan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.