Eskom Has an Average 5GW Electricity Surplus, Ramokopa Says
Eskom has an average surplus of 5,000MW of electricity that South Africans will not buy, driven by improved plant performance and a massive shift to private solar generation, MyBroadband reported.
Electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa informed EFF MP Nqobile Mhlongo in a written reply to Parliamentary inquiries that Eskom holds an average excess of 5,000MW, equivalent to 5GW.
“At this time of the year, when demand is lower, the average excess capacity is estimated to be up to 5GW,” Ramokgopa told MyBroadband.
“For the first time in more than a decade, we have an estimated surplus capacity of between 2GW and 3GW over the next few years,” he said.
Ramokgopa said that this represented a reversal of the constrained system margins in recent years. He added that the excess capacity can be used to drive economic growth.
The surplus comes as Eskom improves the performance of its generation fleet. However, South African homeowners and businesses have drastically reduced their reliance on Eskom power.
Latest data from the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA) showed rooftop solar generation at homes and businesses grew across the country.
The combined maximum installed rooftop solar capacity was projected to reach 9,430MW by September 2026, according to the system status outlook. This represented an increase of about 2,085MW over the course of a year, after the NTCSA estimated combined rooftop solar capacity at 7,345MW in September 2025.
Since the NTCSA started keeping track of rooftop solar capacity in July 2022, installations have expanded by more than 7,166MW, translating to a 316% surge.
Privately owned rooftop solar capacity nationwide stood 1,773MW above the aggregate renewable energy capacity supplying Eskom’s network, which hovered around 7,657MW as of September 2026.
Gauteng boasted the highest volume of installed private rooftop solar at 3,056MW by September 2026, with KwaZulu-Nation coming in second at 1,375.10MW. The Western Cape had the next-highest contribution at 828MW, while the remaining six South African provinces each contributed between 580MW and 797MW.
Eskom also reflected the surge in private solar output through a 6.2% year-on-year drop in electricity sales for its 2026 financial year.
The utility disclosed the drop in sales within its annual report for the period ending 31 March 2026, which was released in August 2026.
Industrial buyers drove the steepest contraction, purchasing 9.7TWh less power from Eskom—a 22.5% decrease compared to the 2025 financial year.
The utility attributed the declines to ferrochrome smelters. Numerous ferrochrome smelters shut down or halted operations as Eskom’s electricity tariffs pushed their input costs to unviable levels.
Early in 2026, the utility attempted to resolve this issue by securing negotiated pricing agreements with two major smelters, specifically Glencore Merafe and Samancor.
Under the agreements, the smelters pay R0.62 per kWh, much less than the R3.56 residential customers on Eskom’s most common Homepower 4 plan pay.
Beyond the reduced consumption from industrial clients, export electricity sales dropped by 8.3%, or 1.2TWh, over the same period.
Agricultural power consumption fell by 5.7%, driven by numerous agricultural operations setting up substantial solar installations over the past five years.
Although a recent MyBroadband analysis indicated that falling demand was the primary driver of excess power, Eskom insisted its surplus was the result of better operational performance.
Our analysis showed that weak economic growth and the increase in private power generation drove the reduction in sales.
Even so, Eskom asserted that its revenue streams would remain secure irrespective of whether users generated their own power or sourced it externally.
The power utility said it would retain revenue through network charges, customer wheeling, and revised tariff structures.