EFSD Raises Tajikistan 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 7.8%
Tajikistan Growth Forecast Lifted to 7.8%
The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Tajikistan to 7.8%, citing stronger-than-expected momentum from the first half of the year, Interfax reported on October 12, 2026. The updated projection marks a notable increase from the fund’s previous estimate of 7.1% issued in its Regional Economic Outlook.
Remittance Contraction Threatens Future Expansion
Despite the upward revision for 2026, the fund’s figures point to a cooling trajectory in the following years. The EFSD affirmed its growth forecasts at 6.7% for 2027 and 6% for 2028. According to the report, economic expansion in the coming years will likely be slowed by a projected decline in migrant remittances from Russia, which serve as a primary engine for domestic demand inside Tajikistan.
Weak Ruble and Tighter Migration Policy Trim Remittances
Remittances are expected to drop steeply from 54.5% of gross domestic product in 2025 to 43.2% in 2026, 38% in 2027, and down to 32.8% by 2029. The fund attributes this downward shift to a weaker Russian ruble—following depreciation that started in August 2026—coupled with a tighter migration policy enforced by Moscow. EFSD calculations indicate that a 1 percentage point drop in remittances relative to GDP can trim Tajikistan’s overall growth by approximately 0.18 percentage points.
External Accounts Face Surpluses Shrinking Into Deficit
This remittance contraction will weigh heavily on the country’s external accounts. The EFSD anticipates the current account surplus will shrink from 17.1% of GDP in 2025 to 7.1% in 2026, eventually shifting into a current account deficit of 1% by 2029.
Inflation Outlook Eases Toward Central Bank Target
On the pricing front, the fund has lowered its 2026 inflation forecast from 6.3% to 5.2%. This downward adjustment comes despite mounting domestic price pressures driven by reduced petroleum product supplies originating from Russia. For the 2027–2029 period, the inflation outlook remains steady at 5% annually, aligning directly with the National Bank of Tajikistan’s target. To manage these monetary conditions, the EFSD projects the country’s refinancing rate will climb from 7% to 8% per annum in 2027 and hold at that level through the remainder of the forecast window.
World Bank and Tajik Government Raise Growth Projections
The EFSD’s revised figures run parallel to other international assessments. Last week, the World Bank raised its own 2026 GDP growth projection for Tajikistan to 7.5% from 6.5%, while lifting its 2027 outlook to 6.2% and its 2028 estimate to 5.6%. Meanwhile, the Tajik government maintains an even higher internal projection, anticipating economic growth of 8.5% for 2026 and 8.4% for 2027, following a recorded GDP expansion of 8.4% in both 2024 and 2025, and an 8.2% year-on-year increase through the first half of 2026.