Snow is increasingly likely for the Washington D.C. Region Sunday evening, though the extent of accumulation remains highly uncertain, according to forecasts from FOX 5 DC. Whereas temperatures are expected to remain mild through Saturday, a significant shift in the jet stream will bring colder air and the potential for a wintry mix by Sunday night.
The D.C. Area has experienced a relatively mild week, allowing for the gradual melting of “snowcrete” that accumulated over the previous month. Saturday is forecast to be the warmest day of the week, with partial sunshine and temperatures reaching the middle 50s. However, a strong dip in the jet stream will usher in colder temperatures overnight Saturday into Sunday, setting the stage for a developing storm system.
Forecasters are currently debating the storm’s track and intensity, which will determine whether the region experiences a light dusting or a more substantial snowfall. The European model suggests the system will begin as rain Sunday morning, transitioning to a mix and then potentially heavy, wet snow Sunday night. Accumulation, if it occurs, is expected to be localized along a narrow band associated with an “inverted surface trough,” making precise forecasting challenging.
Under the European model scenario, parts of the region could see 1 to 3 inches of snow, with a potential for up to 6 inches in localized areas. The American model, however, paints a more dramatic picture, predicting a stronger storm that stays closer to the coastline. This scenario would bring widespread, heavy snowfall, with potential accumulations exceeding 10 inches. Forecasters generally consider the American model’s solution to be an outlier, though it cannot be entirely ruled out.
A key challenge in forecasting this storm is the inconsistency of weather models. Both the European and American models have exhibited significant fluctuations in their predictions, jumping between scenarios with varying snowfall amounts. This inconsistency is attributed to the complex interplay of multiple atmospheric energy sources influencing the storm’s development. A clearer picture is not expected to emerge until closer to Friday night or Saturday, when these energy sources are better sampled and analyzed.
Regardless of the final snowfall totals, forecasters emphasize that this storm will not replicate the extreme conditions of the late January storm. Temperatures will remain above freezing even after the system passes, preventing the formation of “snowcrete.” Any snowfall will likely be wet and subject to some ground melt, given the recent above-freezing temperatures.
Forecasters also caution against relying solely on high-temperature forecasts from weather apps, which may not reflect the dynamic cooling that occurs as colder air moves in. The most significant snowfall risk is expected Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially leading to school closures and delays on Monday morning. FOX 5 DC will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as the forecast becomes clearer.
FOX 5’s Mike Thomas emphasized that, at this time, the expectation is for a lower-impact accumulating snowfall event rather than a major snowstorm. FOX 5 will continue to monitor the threat and provide updates as they become available.
