DAX Analysis: Current Trends, Forecast & Trading Outlook (March 22, 2026)

The DAX index closed at 22,209 points on Friday, March 20, 2026, landing directly on the 50.0% retracement level after three consecutive days of decline, according to analysis from Jens Chrzanowski.

The daily chart currently presents a decidedly bearish interpretation, though a stabilization at the 50.0% retracement level early this week could signal a potential recovery. Should this scenario unfold, an upward movement towards the 38.2% retracement level is possible. A sustained break above this level could extend the rally towards the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA20), currently at 23,818 points. Close observation of price patterns around the SMA20 will be crucial if this level is reached.

Macroeconomic conditions continue to heavily influence the DAX, with both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining their current interest rate policies. Inflation in the Eurozone stands at 1.9%, nearing the ECB’s 2% target. However, rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are introducing new uncertainties and could delay potential interest rate cuts.

The Fed is also proceeding cautiously, with inflation expectations for 2026 revised upwards to 2.2% from 2.1%, and growth projections remaining at 2.3%. This monetary restraint is exerting downward pressure on the DAX, according to the analysis.

Looking back at the trading week of March 16-20, 2026, the DAX began strongly but failed to sustain momentum. The index opened the week at 23,574 points, reached a high of 23,969 points, and closed at 22,209 points. This resulted in a fourth consecutive weekly loss and the sixth loss in 2026 overall. The week’s trading range was 852 points, indicating continued market volatility.

Key resistance levels currently stand at 22,361, 22,533, 22,717, 22,925, 23,035, 23,102-23,133, 23,251, and 23,395 points. Support levels are found at 21,985, 21,833, 21,722, 21,566, 21,433, 21,233, and 21,059 points.

The daily chart confirms the bearish outlook, with the index falling to the 50% retracement level and exhibiting strong downward momentum. The SMA20 at 23,818 points represents a significant hurdle for any potential recovery. A bullish scenario would involve a rebound to the 38.2% retracement level, potentially testing the SMA20. Conversely, a break below the 50% retracement level could lead to further declines, with targets at 21,685 and 20,115 points.

On the 4-hour chart, the DAX remains below the SMA20, indicating continued weakness. The fall below the 38.2% retracement level confirms the downtrend, though short-term rallies towards this level are possible.

Two potential trading setups are outlined: a long (buy) setup with a 60% probability if the DAX stabilizes above 22,209 points, targeting 22,360, 22,625, 23,035, and 23,137 points, contingent on reclaiming the SMA20; and a short (sell) setup with a 40% probability below 22,209 points, targeting 21,865, 21,775, and 21,510 points, maintaining a negative trend below key averages.

The DAX analysis concludes that the market currently exhibits a bearish short-term outlook, with a medium-term trajectory dependent on monetary policy and geopolitical developments. The SMA20 remains a critical level to watch. The ongoing situation in Iran is also noted as a potential catalyst for significant market movements.