SMU Mustangs Face Potential Setback After Playoff Debut

After a notable debut season in a new conference, can the SMU Mustangs maintain their momentum? One college football analyst suggests they might face challenges in the upcoming year.

Analyst’s Concerns

College football analyst David Pollack has voiced concerns about Southern Methodist University’s (SMU) prospects for the upcoming season. On “See Ball, Get Ball with David Pollack,” he speculated that the Mustangs might struggle to replicate their success after finishing with an 11-3 record last year.

Pollack stated, “They just walked in and said, ‘This wasn’t that bad, This ain’t that hard,’ [They] had a chance to beat Clemson late, too. They didn’t show up in the first half, and that’s their fault. I would think more, the defensive side of the football, that regression, I think, happens a little bit. Then maybe a little bit on offense, and maybe you’re not nearly as good as you were.”

Notably, in 2024, four teams—the Oregon Ducks, Texas Longhorns, SMU Mustangs, and Arizona State Sun Devils—all reached the College Football Playoff in their first year in a new conference. The pressure is on to prove it wasn’t a fluke.

Challenges Ahead

SMU faces considerable challenges, ranking No. 78 in returning production, with only 53% of their previous season’s output returning. One bright spot is quarterback Kevin Jennings.

Despite his overall success, Jennings likely wants to forget his last performance: 195 passing yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions in a 38-10 loss to Penn State in the first round of the College Football Playoff. He completed just 55.6% of his passes in that game.

FPI Prediction

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) views the Mustangs favorably, ranking them the No. 3 team in the ACC, behind Miami and Clemson. However, FPI predicts a slight regression, forecasting an 8-4 record. The FPI gives SMU a 10.8% chance of winning the conference and a 21.1% chance of returning to the playoffs.

For comparison, the University of Georgia has the highest chance of winning the national championship in the 2024-25 season, with a 16.4% probability according to ESPN’s FPI (ESPN).

SMU will begin their season at home against the East Texas A&M Lions at 9 p.m. ET on August 30.