PHOENIX – Negotiations among seven Western states over the future of the Colorado River failed to produce a consensus by a federal deadline on Saturday, February 14, 2026, leaving the river’s management in the hands of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The impasse centers on how to allocate dwindling water resources amid a historic drought, with the Lower Basin states – Arizona, California, and Nevada – urging the Upper Basin states to accept greater cuts to water usage.
The Lower Basin governors – Katie Hobbs of Arizona, Gavin Newsom of California, and Joe Lombardo of Nevada – issued a joint statement calling for shared responsibility in conservation efforts. They highlighted that approximately 75% of the population, employment, and agricultural production within the Colorado River Basin resides within their three states, alongside 25 of the 30 sovereign Tribal Nations that depend on the river. The governors announced offers to reduce their allocations: Arizona proposed a 27% reduction, California offered 10%, and Nevada nearly 17%.
“Our stance remains firm and fair: all seven basin states must share in the responsibility of conservation,” the governors stated. They emphasized their commitment to flexibility, allowing states with less developed conservation programs time to implement them, but insisted on a collective approach.
The Upper Basin states – Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming – maintain that their water users are already experiencing significant reductions due to natural limitations. In a statement, they asserted that users are preparing for cuts exceeding 2 million acre-feet this year, representing over 40% of their allocated water rights, which they characterized as “mandatory, uncompensated, and painful.”
Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s lead negotiator, stated, “We’re being asked to solve a problem we didn’t create with water we don’t have.” She argued that the Upper Division’s approach reflects the realities of the river’s diminished flows.
The Bureau of Reclamation released its 24-month forecast for Lake Powell and Lake Mead on February 13, 2026, revealing a dire outlook. The forecast predicts inflows into Lake Powell will be just 52% of average for the water year, approximately 3 million acre-feet lower than November’s initial projections. This translates to an expected 50-foot lower elevation in Lake Powell than previously anticipated.
Acting Commissioner Scott Cameron acknowledged the challenging hydrologic conditions, stating, “The basin’s poor hydrologic outlook highlights the necessity for collaboration as the Basin States, in collaboration with Reclamation, work on developing the next set of operating guidelines for the Colorado River system.” He affirmed the agency’s commitment to utilizing available tools and coordinating with partners to manage reservoirs and protect infrastructure.
Elizabeth Koebele, an associate professor at the University of Nevada Reno specializing in Colorado River governance, noted the inherent difficulties in applying historical water allocation standards to a changing climate. “I’m not saying we should change the law… I’m just saying that we demand to find creative ways to build more flexibility into how water is administered,” she said.
The Bureau of Reclamation released a draft environmental impact statement last month as part of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process, outlining potential management paths developed in consultation with stakeholders. Unusually, the agency did not identify a preferred alternative, signaling a desire for a consensus-based solution from the states. The public comment period on the statement closes March 2, 2026.
Koebele suggested that Reclamation selecting a preferred alternative could potentially spur negotiations. “I think that might help move the negotiations forward because it really puts something concrete on the table that the federal government plans to do to manage the river in the absence of a consensus-based alternative,” she said.
Despite the missed deadline, Arizona’s top negotiator, Tom Buschatzke, indicated a willingness to continue discussions. “The seven states haven’t precluded any more talks,” he stated. Yet, with the operating guidelines for the river expiring at the complete of 2025, and the critical snowpack season approaching in October, time is running short to reach an agreement. Koebele indicated June and July were being discussed as potential hard deadlines for a resolution.
