The 2026 PGA Tour season’s Florida Swing begins this week with the Cognizant Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, marking a significant shift from the West Coast Swing’s conditions to palm trees, water hazards and Bermudagrass. The tournament, formerly known as the Honda Classic, features a redesigned course that has seen scoring averages plummet in recent years.
Changes to the course, originally designed by George and Tom Fazio and later modified by Jack Nicklaus, have made it considerably more playable. Where champions once barely reached double-digits under par, recent winners have posted scores of 14 under (Chris Kirk, 2022), 17 under (Austin Eckroat, 2024), and 19 under (Joe Highsmith, 2025). A key alteration was the lengthening of the 10th hole by 20 yards and its conversion to a par 5.
The course’s current iteration, a par 71 stretching slightly over 7,200 yards, is now largely considered a Nicklaus design. Overseeding with winter Ryegrass has softened the fairways and reduced the penal nature of the rough, contributing to lower scores. The presence of water on 15 of the 18 holes and 60 sand bunkers, combined with potentially windy conditions, will still present a challenge to players.
According to golf analyst Brady Kannon, accuracy, ball striking, and scrambling are paramount at PGA National. Kannon, a regular commentator on SportsGrid and a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline, emphasized the importance of Strokes Gained: Approach, Off the Tee, and Ball Striking, as well as Good Drives Gained, Scrambling, and Hole Proximity from 125-200 yards. He noted the course’s similarity to other Florida venues like Bay Hill, Innisbrook, and TPC Sawgrass, as well as Waialae in Honolulu and recent Canadian Open sites.
Kannon identified several players as strong contenders. Daniel Berger (40-1), a Florida State Seminole, has a history of success at PGA National, including a playoff loss as a rookie in 2015 and subsequent top-four finishes. Kannon highlighted Berger’s ball-striking ability, wind play, and expertise on Bermudagrass. Aaron Rai (40-1) was also singled out for his accuracy and performance in windy conditions, with notable finishes at Canadian Open venues and the Open Championship.
Haotong Li (49-1), despite a recent near miss in Phoenix, was again recommended by Kannon due to his recent form and skill set, including top-10 finishes on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. Jordan Smith (60-1) was praised for his all-around game, ranking highly in Total Driving, Greens in Regulation, and Ball Striking. Mackenzie Hughes (62-1), known for his short game, has also shown recent form at Pebble Beach and has a runner-up finish at the Cognizant Classic in 2020.
Finally, Kannon identified Emiliano Grillo (85-1) as a potential dark horse, citing his ball-striking ability and past success at Florida courses like Bay Hill and The Players. Grillo’s recent struggles out west may be remedied by the change in conditions. The forecast calls for winds of 10-15 mph, which Kannon believes could significantly impact scoring, potentially leading to “carnage” if the winds increase further.
