Climate Action Tracker Warns World Faces Irrecoverable Warming Overshoot
Collective climate action has stalled for the fifth consecutive year, according to the latest update from the initiative. The report was released as countries meet for COP31 in Turkey.
Energy trends show positive signs. Clean electricity met all additional global demand for power in 2025, China and India deployed renewables at a record pace, electric vehicle roll out reached new highs, and deforestation in the Amazon fell sharply.
However, progress on deploying alternatives to fossil fuels is not happening fast enough.
Current Policies Project 2.7C Warming by 2100
Current policies leave the world on track for 2.7C of warming by 2100. That figure is up slightly from 2.6C last year and matches the projections recorded annually from 2021 through 2024.
If governments met their 2030 and 2035 targets to cut emissions under the Paris Agreement, warming would still reach 2.6C.
The Paris target of limiting warming to 1.5C is set to be exceeded in the next few years. Experts warn that action is urgently needed to limit the size and duration of the overshoot, and bring temperatures down below 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100.
It also risks rising sea levels and the potential for catastrophic collapse of natural systems like coral reefs and rainforests.
The Stark Choice Facing Governments
Hare is the head of one of the partner organisations behind the Climate Action Tracker. He emphasized that the imminence of breaching 1.5C cannot be an excuse for defeatism.
That decrease was driven by the expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict.
Hohne added that global emissions could be on the verge of a peak followed by a much faster decline than previously anticipated.
Slowing Action and Speeding Reductions
Despite renewable gains, policy analyst Sarah Heck of Climate Analytics warned that governments are simply not moving fast enough to adopt policies that would enable escape from the emerging overshoot trap.
Long-term warming is expected to cross the 1.5C limit in around 2030, according to the Climate Action Tracker. Holding the overshoot to the minimum still possible requires emission reductions to speed up significantly.
By comparison, carbon emissions from fossil fuels dropped 7% in 2020 as a result of global Covid-19 lockdowns.