Signs Point to Potential Early Elections in Turkey
Political maneuvering is intensifying in Turkey as observers note several indicators suggesting a possible snap election. Despite attempts to hinder the main opposition party, CHP, through legal challenges and municipal scrutiny, recent surveys indicate a continued rise in its popularity.
A key event on the horizon is the CHP’s internal process surrounding the “absolute butlan” (absolute nullity) decision. The cancellation of the party’s 38th Ordinary Assembly and Istanbul Congress, scheduled for September 15th and 21st respectively, will be overseen by the previous administration. This comes as the ruling party is believed to be attempting to capitalize on any resulting disruption within the CHP.
Several actions by the government are being interpreted as planning for a potential election. President Erdoğan and MHP leader Bahçeli have prominently featured a “non-terrorism Turkey” narrative, alongside increased investment in the defense industry and efforts to bolster the Central Bank’s reserves. Together, the Treasury currently holds 622 billion pounds in debt, while the government emphasizes a “strong Turkey” message.
For an early election to be called, a minimum of 360 votes in the 600-seat Parliament are required. Currently,the Republican Alliance holds 319 seats. Should the Assembly vote in favor of early elections,it would open the door for President Erdoğan to seek a third term in office.
What Happens if the “Absolute Butlan” Decision is Upheld?
If the “absolute butlan” decision is confirmed, the matter will return to the Assembly, potentially impacting the position of CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu before the planned party congress. While Kılıçdaroğlu is not expected to accept the task of leading the party under these circumstances, a congress is anticipated to be convened to elect a new president. The timing of this congress – considered a “reasonable time” – will be persistent by members of the party’s executive committee and the general president. The current leadership advocates for a swift congress, while internal opposition voices argue for a longer recovery period of at least one year for the party.
