China’s Foreign Trade Growth Outpaced Market Expectations Through October, Pushing the Ten-Month
China Commercial Surplus Exceeds One Trillion Dollars
China’s foreign trade growth outpaced market expectations through October, pushing the ten-month commercial surplus past 1.04 trillion dollars.
Exports rose 35.2 percent year-on-year to 412.3 billion dollars last month, according to General Administration of Customs figures. That figure surpassed the 33.5 percent forecast by analysts, though it slowed slightly from September’s 36.3 percent gain.
Global demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure hardware, including computer chips, data center servers, and networking equipment, drove the export surge. Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, wrote that exporters served as the primary driving force for the Chinese economy this year.
Imports accelerated faster than anticipated, jumping 41.6 percent to 307.1 billion dollars in October. That marked the highest annual growth rate since May 2021, easily beating analyst estimates of 32 percent and accelerating from September’s 31 percent increase. Strong domestic demand for AI-related materials and semiconductors fueled the import acceleration, while crude oil imports also rose. Crude oil imports climbed 13.1 percent monthly to reach 41.9 million tons, the highest level since March.
The faster expansion of imports compared to exports narrowed China’s monthly trade surplus. The October surplus shrank to 105.28 billion dollars, falling short of the expected 126.5 billion dollars and dropping from September’s 133.53 billion dollar surplus. A stronger yuan, which hit four-year highs in October following People’s Bank of China fixings, also weighed on export values.
Total exports for the first ten months grew 22.7 percent compared to the same period in 2025, while imports increased 29 percent. This brought the cumulative surplus to 1.043 trillion dollars, keeping Beijing on track to surpass the record 1.2 trillion dollar surplus recorded across all of 2025. Last year, the country did not cross the trillion-dollar threshold until November.
Widening Trade Imbalances Increase Friction with Western Partners
The widening imbalances have intensified trade friction with Western trading partners. The ten-month data highlights the Chinese economy’s continued reliance on external sales. Data released show China’s surplus with the 27-nation European Union climbed to 310.7 billion dollars between January and October, up from 241.6 billion dollars during the same period in 2025. Those unbalanced flows increased pressure on Brussels to protect local industries from what critics term unfair competition.
Meanwhile, the trade figures emerged ahead of a high-stakes meeting between President Xi Jinping and United States President Donald Trump at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Xi and Trump have maintained a fragile truce in their trade dispute following meetings last autumn and subsequent talks in Washington. The upcoming Shenzhen summit scheduled for November 18 and 19 could also involve Russian President Vladimir Putin in trilateral talks.
Domestically, consumer spending remains subdued. Inflation continues to track well below Beijing’s official target of around two percent, leaving the economy heavily reliant on overseas shipments while internal demand recovers slowly. The figures point to another record surplus ahead, even as protectionist measures from the United States and tensions with the European Union mount.