China Targets France’s Rafale in Industrial, Psychological & Geopolitical Warfare
A Chinese state television broadcast in late December 2025 depicting simulated aerial combat between People’s Liberation Army Air Force J-16 fighters and French-made Rafale jets identified as belonging to the Indian Air Force has ignited a complex industrial, psychological, and geopolitical contest, according to analysis by Giuseppe Gagliano, President of the Centro Studi Strategici Carlo De Cristoforis in Como, Italy.
The CCTV exercise, conducted in Xuchang, Henan province, featured eight J-16s against six Rafales. Gagliano argues this choice of adversary was deliberate, selecting an opponent perceived as credible, dangerous, and representative of a significant military capability. By publicly designating the Rafale as a primary threat, Beijing implicitly acknowledges its military value while simultaneously attempting to frame it as vulnerable.
The exercise, normally classified, is interpreted as a strategic admission by China. According to Gagliano, Beijing views the Rafale not as a secondary platform or mere commercial competitor, but as a high-performance, agile, robust fighter with advanced electronic warfare capabilities, data fusion, and multirole versatility. The scenario – eight J-16s versus six Rafales – emphasizes mass, saturation, missile economy, sensor coordination, network integration, and artificial intelligence support, suggesting a Chinese strategy focused on systemic superiority rather than individual dogfights.
This media operation follows directly from clashes between India and Pakistan in May 2025, during which at least one Indian Rafale was reportedly lost in an engagement involving Pakistani systems of Chinese origin. Beijing leveraged this incident, transforming a limited tactical event into a broader strategic narrative and a commercial argument. According to Gagliano, China activated military attachés, diplomatic channels, social media, manipulated content, and AI-generated imagery to discredit the aircraft and undermine France’s strategic credibility, industrial autonomy, and ability to offer a comprehensive defense package encompassing weapons, maintenance, training, and political influence.
The CCTV report targets not only India but also potential buyers such as Indonesia, Greece, Egypt, and Qatar. The message conveyed is that even a sophisticated aircraft like the Rafale can be overwhelmed by a Chinese “system of systems” approach, employing mass, networking, and attrition. This constitutes a form of narrative dissuasion, preparing potential customers for the idea that French aerial superiority is waning.
The Rafale’s success in strategic markets is a key concern for China. Beyond Dassault Aviation, the aircraft represents a distinct French approach to power – technological autonomy, an independent arms diplomacy, and a sovereign relationship with clients, allowing France to operate between Washington, and Beijing. Attacking the Rafale, is seen as a broader attempt to reduce French influence and limit the long-term technological dependence, political access, and geopolitical alignments created by arms sales.
The situation is further complicated by Taiwan. When Éric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation, indicated in September 2025 that Taipei was interested in acquiring the Rafale, it reopened a sensitive issue in Franco-Chinese relations. Taiwan’s aging fleet of Mirage 2000-5 fighters is becoming increasingly costly to maintain. The Rafale offers a modern, multirole alternative capable of bolstering deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.
A potential sale to Taiwan, estimated at 36 to 60 aircraft plus associated armaments, maintenance, and training, would represent a significant boost for the French defense industry, benefiting Dassault, Thales, and Safran. It would also be a major political win for France, demonstrating its ability to export advanced military technology to a critical region. However, Beijing views Taiwan as a red line. Supplying the Rafale to Taipei would, from the Chinese perspective, elevate France from a difficult economic partner to an actor involved in the strategic containment of China.
The consequences, according to Gagliano, would likely include the recall of ambassadors, a freeze in political dialogue, targeted economic pressure, and potential sanctions against French defense and aerospace groups, alongside intensified disinformation campaigns against the Rafale. Paris faces a difficult equation: upholding its sovereignty and supporting its industrial base versus navigating its economic interdependence with China.
The Rafale, has become more than just an aircraft; It’s a symbol of the broader competition between China’s ambition to reshape the Asian strategic order and France’s continued assertion of its military, industrial, and diplomatic independence. As of March 21, 2026, the French government has not publicly responded to the implications of the CCTV broadcast or confirmed any ongoing discussions with Taiwan regarding the Rafale.