China marriage rate drops to 18-year low in first nine months
A total of 4.65 million couples registered for marriage across China from January to the end of September, marking the lowest figure recorded for the first nine months of any year in 18 years. The Ministry of Civil Affairs released the figures, which show that 2.08 million couples also divorced during the same nine-month span. Local news outlet Yicai reported the multi-year low on November 6.
- China recorded 4.65 million marriage registrations between January and September of this year, representing an 18-year low.
- Ministry of Civil Affairs data shows 2.08 million couples divorced over the same nine-month period.
Marriage Slump Accelerates Declining Birth Rates
The tumbling marriage rate accelerates ongoing concerns regarding declining birth rates and broader demographic strain within the country. In China, childbearing remains closely tied to wedlock, making marriage statistics a direct indicator of future population trends. The country’s population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025 as the birth rate hit a record low, prompting demographers to issue warnings about continued downward trajectories. These compounding factors have left China supporting more elderly people than children, with the old-age dependency ratio surpassing that of the younger demographic segment.
Authorities have attempted to reverse these trends by rolling out various measures to encourage marriage and childbearing. State interventions include family subsidies, childcare support, and reduced childbirth-related medical costs. Government planners have also pledged to integrate youth development into urban planning, housing, healthcare, education, and public services to create an environment more supportive of families and children.
Long-Term Population Projections
Despite policy incentives, demographic indicators continue to show contraction across multiple age brackets. The United Nations defines the reproductive age for women as 15 to 49, a cohort that is projected to drop by more than two-thirds to under 100 million by the end of the century.
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