China and Russia supply intelligence and tech for Iran strikes
On July 17, an Iranian missile strike on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan killed three American soldiers and wounded four others, executing a precise attack that U.S. officials later discovered was aided by high-resolution satellite images provided by Chinese entities before the impact. That lethal operation showed that the United States’ adversaries have changed how they conduct modern warfare. Rather than fighting directly, Beijing and Moscow are supplying the intelligence, components, and technical expertise that make Tehran’s strikes increasingly lethal.
Satellite Intelligence and Precision Missile Strikes
The July strike in Jordan was not an isolated incident of outside technological assistance. Weeks after the attack, U.S. officials discovered that Iran had obtained additional imagery to assess the damage and hone future targeting plans. This intelligence network mirrors operations deployed earlier in the year. Two days before a March 27 attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia that wounded 12 American personnel, 14 Russian spy satellites passed overhead. U.S. officials later concluded that Moscow fed that satellite intelligence directly to Iran.
Moscow has also provided weapons and military expertise. Russian engineers are actively helping Iran develop supersonic cruise missiles designed to evade U.S. and Israeli air defenses, while also supplying upgraded versions of Iranian drones that were refined on the battlefield in Ukraine.
The Evolution of Shared Military Technology
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea primarily involved straightforward bilateral transactions. Iran supplied Shahed drones, North Korea sent ammunition and ballistic missiles, and China provided machine tools and microelectronics to sustain Russian military production. Today, that cooperation has evolved into a networked cycle of adaptation.
Russia took the Iranian drone design, incorporated Chinese components, and continuously modified navigation, communications, and payloads based on Ukrainian defense tactics. Those upgraded, jet-powered Geran drones are faster and harder to intercept. That technology now circulates back through the axis network, returning to Iran and helping North Korea expand its own drone production following deals struck with Russia.
Alliance Networks Under Strain
The United States entered this ongoing conflict with distinct advantages: a vast network of formal allies, intelligence-sharing arrangements, and interoperable forces spanning Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Yet, as CNAS reported, many traditional partners proved reluctant to associate themselves with the campaign, with some denying specific forms of military access and publicly resisting calls to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.
While the United States’ adversaries began their campaign with a weaker network, they have successfully fine-tuned their cooperation to make their partners more resilient. Meanwhile, Washington has frequently created friction in its partnerships.
Axis Support Shifts US Defenses and Oil Prices
The axis powers have avoided directly entering one another’s wars, opting instead for calculated material and diplomatic support that keeps their own risks low. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent global oil prices soaring, delivering an economic windfall to Russia while prompting Washington to temporarily ease restrictions on Russian oil exports.
The conflict has also forced the United States to redeploy critical air and missile defenses from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, leaving aircraft carriers concentrated in one theater and thinning defensive postures elsewhere.