Champions League 2025/26: Arsenal Now Favorites, Opta Supercomputer Predicts

Arsenal are currently favored to win the 2026 UEFA Champions League, according to projections from the Opta supercomputer, despite a recent shift in the competition’s landscape following the Round of 16 matches.

The supercomputer’s latest analysis, based on 10,000 simulations, gives Arsenal a 29.73% chance of lifting the trophy, surpassing Bayern Munich, who are calculated at 18.33%. Barcelona follows with a 15.66% probability, while Paris Saint-Germain is projected at 11.87%, and Real Madrid at 9.85%, according to Opta data released March 19, 2026.

The Round of 16 saw a significant upset for English clubs, with several teams eliminated. Manchester City, Newcastle United, and Tottenham Hotspur all exited the competition, leaving only Arsenal and Liverpool representing the Premier League in the quarter-finals. Paris Saint-Germain delivered a decisive victory over Chelsea, winning the tie with an aggregate score of 8-2.

Real Madrid as well advanced, defeating Manchester City. Sporting CP, initially considered longshots with a mere 0.45% chance of winning, has dramatically improved their odds to 3.27% following a successful performance in the knockout stages. Atlético Madrid remains a contender, though their projected chances stand at 4.65%.

Liverpool, facing the defending champions Paris Saint-Germain, are currently sixth favorites with a 7.12% chance of winning the tournament. The quarter-final ties are scheduled for April 8-9, 2026 (first leg) and April 15-16, 2026 (second leg).

Recent projections from Opta, however, indicated a change in the competition’s outlook as of March 13, 2026. Arsenal’s chances dropped from 26.7 percent to 22.07 percent following a 1-1 draw against Bayer Leverkusen in the first leg of the Round of 16. This decline allowed Bayern Munich to become the new favorite, surging ahead after securing a 6-1 advantage against Atalanta.

The Opta supercomputer also projects the likelihood of Premier League teams qualifying for the Champions League next season, with Aston Villa currently favored to reach the competition ahead of Arsenal and Manchester City, as of March 5, 2026. Manchester United are projected to secure a top-four place in 55.5% of simulations, and a top-five finish in 76.2%.