“`html

Dutch Political Landscape Shifts: CDA Gains Ground as VVD Declines, Center-left Coalition Increasingly Likely

the Hague, Netherlands – August 9, 2025 – Recent polling data indicates a significant shift in the Dutch political landscape, with the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) experiencing a resurgence while the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) continues its decline. This trend suggests a center-left coalition government is becoming increasingly probable,perhaps marking a departure from the political dynamics of the past two decades.

The data, compiled by Maurice.nl, reveals a clear trajectory for the larger Dutch parties following the recent collapse of the Rutte IV cabinet on July 2nd, 2025. The graph below illustrates these changes in voter preference.

The current political climate is defined by the stated unwillingness of both the CDA and VVD to form a governing coalition with the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders. Given this constraint, the polling data reveals a stark contrast in potential coalition sizes:

• A coalition comprised of the CDA, GroenLinks/PvdA (GreenLeft/Labor Party), Democrats 66 (D66), and the Socialist Party (SP) would command 71 seats in the 150-seat Parliament. This represents an increase from the 63 seats held by these parties shortly before the cabinet’s fall on May 31st, 2025. Adding support from two of the three parties – ChristenUnie, Volt, and Party for the Animals – could solidify a center-left majority.
• Conversely, a coalition of the CDA with parties to its right – the VVD, JA21, and the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) – excluding the PVV, would only secure 53 seats. Even including D66, this combination would reach only 64 seats.

This electoral shift suggests that a center-left government is now more feasible than a center-right alternative. such a government would be the first since the fourth Balkenende cabinet, which governed from 2006 to 2007, led by Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende.

Public Sentiment on Government Stability

A recent survey indicates that 94% of Dutch voters desire a stable government, even though only 25% believe such stability is highly likely. Voter expectations regarding stability vary significantly by party affiliation. 40% of CDA and D66 voters anticipate a stable government, compared to approximately one-third (33%) of GroenLinks/PvdA voters.

Support for stability is lower among voters of the VVD (25%) and PVV (20%), and even lower among supporters of BBB, JA21, SP, and the Forum for Democracy (FVD).

When asked to select up to four parties they would prefer to see in the next government, 53% of respondents chose the CDA. GroenLinks/PvdA, D66, VVD, and JA21 were each selected by approximately 35% of respondents, while BBB and PVV garnered support from around 30%. Smaller parties received less than 10% of the selections.

The following interactive graph details preferences among different voter groups.