Guerrero Jr.Presents Unique Challenge for Rodón in Pivotal ALDS Game 3
Toronto – the matchup between Toronto Blue Jays left-hander Carlos Rodón and Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir guerrero Jr. looms as a critical factor in Game 3 of the American league Division Series. While Rodón is considered one of baseball’s elite lefties,Guerrero has demonstrated a notable ability to effectively counter his pitching arsenal.
Historically, Baltimore’s Dean Kremer has struggled to generate quick swings from Guerrero, who boasts a 1.328 OPS against him. Though, even adjusting his swing to avoid his “A-swing” appears to impact Guerrero’s performance, as he’s been getting his best swings off against Rodón.
Rodón typically relies on his slider and changeup to generate whiffs against right-handed hitters. This season,his slider has a 38 percent whiff rate,and his changeup a 35 percent whiff rate.However, Guerrero has shown remarkable discipline against these pitches. In his career against Rodón, the pitcher has thrown 30 sliders and changeups to Guerrero, resulting in only 13 swings and a single miss – a foul tip on a hanging slider in 2024. Guerrero subsequently singled home two runs on a hard-hit grounder off a fastball.
A key factor is pitch location. Only 40 percent of Rodón’s slider and changeup offerings to Guerrero have been in the strike zone. Guerrero has swung at just twice out of 18 such pitches, resulting in a foul ball and a weak flyout. This represents an 11 percent chase rate, considerably lower than the 33 percent chase rate Rodón typically induces from right-handed hitters with those pitches, suggesting Guerrero is picking up the ball well out of the hand.
This year, Rodón has begun matchups against guerrero with four-seam fastballs and changeups, none of which were in the zone. Guerrero has not offered at any of these initial pitches. This contrasts with previous years where Rodón varied his first-pitch approach, ofen working in and around the zone. As a result, Guerrero has started with a 1-0 count in all six plate appearances against Rodón this year, putting Rodón in a disadvantageous position and allowing guerrero greater selectivity.
Despite the previous struggles, Rodón remains a highly effective pitcher. While his previous approaches haven’t yielded success against Guerrero, a single strikeout woudl represent a positive shift in the dynamic.
