Teh provided text discusses the political maneuvering around a potential motion of censure against the French government, led by prime Minister François Bayrou.The national Rally (RN) party is a key player in this scenario.
Here’s a breakdown of the situation and how it relates to the RN:
The RN’s Position and Potential Strategy:
opening a Negotiation Door: The RN could choose to engage in discussions with the government, presenting the government’s measures as a “work base.” This suggests a willingness to negotiate rather than promptly resorting to a censure.
Advantages of Bayrou Staying: The RN might see benefits in Bayrou remaining Prime Minister. This is because the government is proposing an “austere 2026 budget” that involves “reduction of expenses.”
“cleaning Up” Public Accounts: The RN believes that if the government implements these cost-cutting measures, it will be “cleaning up the public accounts.” This would be advantageous for the RN, especially if they win the 2027 presidential election, as it would reduce the pressure on them to make difficult financial decisions.
Moral Argument: An RN official states, “It would be more moral whether it be Macronie to make the hard decisions necessary to settle the Macronist catastrophic management…” This implies they believe the current government should bear the brunt of unpopular austerity measures.
Precedent with 2025 Budget: This logic was also seen during the examination of the 2025 budget, where an RN deputy indicated they wouldn’t censor the government if it did it’s job (implying responsible fiscal management).
The RN’s Hesitation on Censure:
Calling New Legislative Elections: Overthrowing the Bayrou government through a censure motion would likely lead to new legislative elections.
Macron’s power of Dissolution: Emmanuel Macron has regained the power to dissolve the National Assembly.
Marine Le Pen‘s Ineligibility: Crucially, marine Le Pen, a prominent RN figure, would be unable to run for her deputy seat in new elections due to a prior ineligibility ruling related to a parliamentary assistants trial. this is a significant reason for the RN to be hesitant about triggering new elections.
RN Statements:
Sébastien Chenu’s Threat: Sébastien Chenu, a Vice-President of the RN, directly threatened the government, stating, “If he persists, he will take a censorship in the face.” He criticized the government’s assessment as “ruin” and their solution as “austerity.”
Government’s Response:
Minister of Economy’s Assurance: The Minister of the Economy, Eric Lombard, acknowledged the opposition’s negative reaction to the “huge plan” but assured that they would “chat with all the parties” to avoid censure. He specifically mentioned seeking agreement with the Socialist Party and hoped for “wider support” for the sake of “national interest.”
the RN is in a complex position. while they are critical of the government’s austerity measures, they also see a strategic advantage in the government implementing these cuts. Moreover, the potential for new legislative elections, which would prevent Marine Le Pen from running, is a significant deterrent to them initiating a motion of censure.
