Brent Oil Prices Fall as Trump Says Military Action Against Iran Unnecessary
Harga minyak Brent turun sekitar -5,8% ke level US$92,6/barrel pada Senin (9/11) dan lanjut melemah -1,9% ke US$90,8/barrel per Selasa (10/11) sore, snips.stockbit.com reported.
The decline followed remarks from United States President Donald Trump stating that further military action against Iran appeared unnecessary. Trump told CNN on Sunday (8/11) that a large-scale strike on Iran was very unlikely if Tehran agreed to sign a deal. On Monday (9/11), after meeting the prime minister of Qatar, Trump said the war with Iran would “end fairly soon” and was, militarily, “effectively over.”
According to Kompas, Brent crude plummeted 5.75 US dollars or 5.85 percent to 92.57 US dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate fell 3.98 US dollars or 4.38 percent to 86.85 US dollars per barrel.
Crude oil production from 11 OPEC member states rose by approximately ~1,4 juta barrel per hari month-on-month in October 2026 to around ~22,9 juta barrel per hari, snips.stockbit.com reported. This output represents roughly 90 percent of pre-war levels recorded in February 2026 at ~25,5 juta barrel per hari. Supplies increased primarily due to higher output from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq.
Despite rising production and normalization of flows, security risks persist across the region. Bloomberg Technoz noted that the downward price trend reflects diminishing geopolitical risk premiums driven by market expectations of easing war tensions rather than a broad recovery in global oil supply.
Energy infrastructure risks continue to affect the market. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was hit by an attack, causing a fire in the Medina region that was subsequently extinguished, Kompas reported, citing a Saudi Energy Ministry source who confirmed no casualties or disruptions to pipeline operations.
Investing reported that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has shown recovery, supported by US military escorts. ING analysts noted that while oil flows are normalizing, the transport routes remain inefficient, which is reflected in surging tanker shipping rates.
“Meskipun aliran minyak mulai normal kembali, cara minyak keluar dari kawasan tersebut sama sekali tidak normal, yang tercermin dari lonjakan tarif pengiriman kapal tanker, mengingat aliran minyak yang sangat tidak efisien,” said an analyst at ING in a note.
On Tuesday (10/11), the rupiah strengthened slightly against the US dollar, with USD/IDR at 18,051 (-0.19%), while the Jakarta Composite Index rose +1.02%, snips.stockbit.com reported.