Brazil Soy Exports Fall Amidst Harvest Progress | [Year] Update

Brazil is projected to harvest a record 6.5 billion bushels of soybeans in the 2025-26 crop season, even as farm margins decline to their lowest level in nearly two decades, according to reports released this month.

The anticipated record harvest, driven by expanded acreage and favorable yields in key producing regions, is occurring alongside a challenging economic environment for Brazilian farmers. Lower soybean prices, high production costs, and weak port premiums are compressing profitability, according to a report from the Center for Commercial Agriculture at Purdue University and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

“Total production costs exclude cash rent. More than 80% of soybean farmers in Brazil operate on land they own,” the report stated, noting that the land cost calculation reflects the opportunity cost of land and capital investment.

The situation is raising concerns about a potential slowdown in soybean acreage expansion in Brazil, which has consistently increased since the early 2000s. Analysts at Agrolatam.com report the harvest is expected to reach 177.1 million metric tons in early 2026.

The potential for oversupply is also impacting global markets. “We’re growing at a scale that’s greater than demand,” said Thiago Facco, VP at Aprosoja Tocantins, as reported by Agrolatam.com. “In a very near future, we will have excess production.”

Abiove, Brazil’s crushers association, projects the country’s ending stockpiles in 2026 will be the highest in nine years, despite increased biodiesel demand. This comes as global soybean stocks are climbing, and Brazilian processors and exporters face logistical and economic challenges.

The record harvest is expected to position pressure on commodity prices and potentially squeeze margins for both Brazilian, and U.S. Farmers. Even as the increase from last year’s harvest is modest at 3.3%, the structural concerns surrounding expanding acreage and trade uncertainties are driving fears of a price crash.

Iowa Soybean Association representatives have not yet commented on the potential impact of the Brazilian harvest on U.S. Markets.