Brazil Election: Flavio Bolsonaro Leads Lula in First Round as US Watches Closely

Conservative candidate Flavio Bolsonaro finished ahead of leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, signaling a political shift toward the conservative movement in Latin America’s largest economy. Neither candidate took a majority in Sunday’s balloting, requiring a runoff later this month.

Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of right-wing former president Jair Bolsonaro, enters the runoff with political momentum. Jair Bolsonaro is currently under house arrest for staging a coup. Voters went to the polls addressing themes including affordability, the judiciary, and crime, choosing between candidates offering very different versions of the country’s future.

Stakes for the Economy and International Trade

At stake in the choice is the direction of Latin America’s biggest democracy and one of the world’s top ten global economies. Brazil’s national income is bigger than Canada or Mexico’s, and the country serves as a global supplier of oil, soybeans, and critical minerals—vital commodities amid trade wars entangling the United States and China. China is currently Brazil’s largest trading partner.

Washington Watches Closely

In Washington, President Trump has been watching the vote very closely. The election serves as a test of U.S. influence in Latin America, where numerous countries have swung to the right over the last two years. The Trump administration views Brazil as strategically important for addressing issues such as irregular immigration and reducing the flow of drugs. Brazil is the world’s second-biggest consumer of cocaine and a transit point for drugs headed to Europe and Africa.

The presidential contest unfolds as several countries in the region have moved to the right, with 13 of the last 16 elections in the region won by right or center-right candidates.