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Bitcoin Market Dynamics Shift: Traditional Cycles Questioned Amidst ETF Inflows and Regulatory Progress
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has publicly acknowledged a significant shift in Bitcoin’s market behavior, suggesting that traditional trading strategies may no longer be as effective. In an X post, Ju stated, “Trading feels pointless. Holders now outnumber traders.” He admitted that his previous prediction of the bull cycle ending was a miscalculation, attributing it to overlooking this fundamental change in market participants. Ju extended an apology for any impact his forecast may have had on investors’ decisions.
This sentiment echoes concerns from other market observers. Ju’s earlier warning in April, when Bitcoin was priced around $84,000, highlighted a divergence between rising Realized Cap (a metric reflecting actual capital inflows tracked via blockchain data) and stable prices. He interpreted this as a bearish signal, yet Bitcoin continued its ascent, surpassing $120,000 by July and reaching multiple new all-time highs within the month.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, has also voiced skepticism regarding the continued relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Hougan posited in an X post that the underlying forces driving previous cycles are diminishing. He argued that the impact of each halving event is becoming less pronounced, while external factors such as interest rates and regulatory risks have eased.Instead, Hougan suggests that larger, long-term forces are now shaping the market. These include consistent capital allocation into spot etfs, increasing interest from institutional investors, and the gradual integration of crypto infrastructure by Wall Street. He pointed to regulatory advancements, noting that significant progress began in January 2025 and is expected to continue for several years. Hougan also highlighted Wall Street’s nascent but growing investment in crypto, which he believes will accelerate in the coming quarters and years, particularly following the recent passage of the GENIUS Act.
Hougan anticipates that this evolving landscape may lead not to another “super-cycle” characterized by explosive growth, but rather to a “sustained steady boom.”
The GENIUS Act, a piece of legislation focused on stablecoins, was signed into law by President Donald Trump last Friday. This followed a relatively swift multi-month legislative process. Other significant U.S. crypto bills, such as the CLARITY Act, which addresses broader market structure, have also progressed through Congress but have not yet been enacted into law.
