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Australia’s Mogami Frigate Deal: Risks and Realities

Australia’s Frigate Purchase: Misplaced Priorities

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles’ justification for Australia’s purchase of upgraded Mogami-class frigates – and, mirroring this, the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines – is flawed. The claim that these vessels will “secure our maritime trade routes” doesn’t hold water. Australia’s extensive trade routes are simply too vast to be comprehensively protected by any navy, and the cost of attempting to do so would likely outweigh any benefit. Moreover, disrupting Australian trade is unlikely to compel political capitulation; historically, such actions tend to strengthen national resolve.

The real concern regarding trade disruption – potential impacts on wartime operations due to resource shortages like fuel – is better addressed through bolstering domestic resilience. This means increasing onshore stockpiles, developing domestic manufacturing capabilities, and accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources, capitalizing on Australia’s abundant sunshine.

Beyond the questionable rationale of trade route protection, the very effectiveness of large warships like the Mogami-class in modern warfare is under debate. Many experts believe these ships are increasingly vulnerable to modern anti-ship missiles and naval drones, requiring unsustainable levels of defensive weaponry to survive. While disagreement exists – as illustrated by historical Soviet tactics detailed in a chilling account from a former Soviet naval officer who accepted potentially massive losses in attacking US carriers – the risk to these expensive assets is significant.

Ultimately, Australia should prioritize building resilience and diversifying its energy sources over relying on costly warships to protect unprotectable trade routes.

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