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Australia‘s Emissions Down, But Concerns Rise over Accounting Methods and Policy Effectiveness
canberra – Australia’s national emissions were 28% lower as of 2023 compared to 2005 levels, according to government data released this week. However,the reported reduction is heavily reliant on estimates of carbon dioxide absorbed by forests and land,raising questions about the true impact of climate policies aimed at curbing fossil fuel use.
Environment and Water Minister Tanya Bowen defended the government’s approach, stating they are “on track” to meet emissions reduction targets “if we stay the course and continue to lift our efforts.” she highlighted a new vehicle efficiency standard projected to reduce emissions from cars.
Data from the first year of the Safeguard Mechanism, a key component of Australia’s climate policy, showed a direct emissions cut of 2.7 million tonnes, or nearly 2%, across 219 large emitting facilities. However, the scheme has faced criticism for perhaps financially rewarding companies that increase emissions.
The majority of Australia’s claimed emissions reductions are attributed to changes in land use and forestry practices – the amount of CO2 absorbed and stored in these areas.Critics argue that measuring this absorption is imprecise and vulnerable to reversal due to increasing risks of drought, fire, and flood. Some advocate for separating land and forest emissions from overall economic emissions to provide a clearer picture of progress in reducing fossil fuel-related pollution.
Excluding land use, national emissions were only 3.7% lower in the year to March than in 2005. This represents an improvement from the previous year, when emissions were down 2.5%, but underscores the significant challenge ahead.
The Safeguard Mechanism, established in 2016, sets emissions baselines for industrial facilities with more than 100,000 tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions annually.The recent revisions to the mechanism, implemented in 2023, aim to drive down emissions by requiring facilities to reduce their emissions by 4.9% each year until 2030.
Australia has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by 2050. The reliance on land-based carbon sequestration raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of these targets, particularly given the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters impacting Australian ecosystems.
Experts have cautioned that nature-based solutions, while valuable, cannot be relied upon indefinitely without ample reductions in fossil fuel emissions.
