Argentine household disposable income fell for the fourth consecutive month in December 2025, dipping below levels recorded in November 2023, a period still influenced by the previous administration’s economic policies, according to a report by the consulting firm Empiria. The decline underscores persistent economic challenges facing Argentinians despite government efforts to stabilize the economy.
Empiria’s data indicates a 1% real monthly decrease in disposable income during December, accumulating a 3.1% contraction over the preceding four months. This aligns with official data from the INDEC, which shows a real contraction in income and a sluggish recovery in mass consumption. “The complementary outboard motor, which was credit – personal loans and credit cards – is also finding a limit, because fixed household expenses, representing 23% of family income, and loan installments, 26%, mean that by the 5th of the month, the family has only 50% of their salary left for the entire month’s groceries or shopping,” explained Hernán Lacunza, former Minister of Economy and director of Empiria.
The report highlights a widening gap between income levels. Disposable income fell 1.3% in the lowest income households (deciles 1 to 4) and 0.8% in the highest income brackets. The lowest income segment remains 6.9% below November 2023 levels, whereas the highest income segment is 1.9% lower. “The typical family buys fewer small items at the supermarket. If they used to buy 10 items, now they buy 9.5,” Lacunza stated, adding that while basic necessities like milk remain consistent, discretionary purchases like beer are being reduced.
Falling wages contributed to the decline in disposable income in December. Registered wages decreased by 0.8% and informal wages by 0.9%. Private sector wages fell 0.3%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline, and are now 2.6% below November 2023 levels. Public sector wages experienced a more significant reduction, falling 1.8% in real terms and 17% since Javier Milei assumed office. Provincial public sector wages are 9% lower than in November 2023, while national public sector wages have fallen by 38%.
Rising fixed expenses also exerted pressure on disposable income. While decreases in electricity (-1.4%) and water (-1.9%) costs offered some offset, increases in rent (+0.6%), maintenance fees (+0.4%), and public transportation (+3.9%) collectively contributed to a 0.5% rise in overall fixed expenses.
Consumption patterns reflect these economic pressures. While durable goods consumption – including real estate and automobiles – saw a 12% increase in December, largely driven by credit availability, non-durable goods consumption rose only 0.8% and fell 7% year-on-year. According to Empiria, credit has increased 89% between 2023 and 2025, fueling the durable goods market. However, spending on cinemas decreased by 23%, and sales in wholesale and supermarket channels fell by 22% and 11% respectively, with consumption of meat, gasoline, and diesel decreasing between 3% and 5%.
Looking ahead to 2026, Empiria projects a neutral trend (0% year-on-year in December), with an expected average annual variation of -2% due to the carryover effect from the end of 2025. Federico Moll, director of Ecolatina, noted that while average growth for 2025 was 12%, much of this recovery was due to the low base of comparison from the first half of 2024. Ecolatina’s data already shows negative year-on-year figures for December, with a 1.9% contraction.
The government is currently seeking “moderation” in wage negotiations for the coming year, without specifying a concrete ceiling for wage increases, according to a source within a key ministry. “We are asking for moderation to continue the decline in inflation and to allow a margin between the collective bargaining salary and the highest real salary with the maintenance of jobs,” the source said.
Year-on-year inflation in December 2025 was 31.5%. Real year-on-year wage increases were observed in the provincial public sector (0.8%), while the national public sector experienced a decrease of -8.6%. Registered private sector wages fell by -2.1%. Compared to November 2023, registered private sector wages are down 1.6%, and public sector wages are down 17% (35.2% for national employees and 9.3% for provincial employees). Experts anticipate further declines in purchasing power in 2026 if these real wage trends persist.
