Argentina’s Country Risk Drops Below 500 Points Following US Support
Argentina’s country risk index fell below the 500-basis-point threshold for the first time in over two weeks, touching 496 points according to market data. Driven by rising sovereign bond prices and renewed backing from the United States Treasury, the JP Morgan indicator retreated 1,6% during Wednesday’s trading session, defying a broader external sell-off fueled by rising oil prices and Middle East tensions.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds and Sovereign Debt Performance
The compression in the country risk measure stems directly from a rebound in local fixed-income assets. According to data compiled by Gerente.com via Rava screens, sovereign titles under local law scaled up to 0,6%—exemplified by the AL41D bond—while Global issues like the GD46D ascended 0,3%. This recovery allowed the index to drop from an August peak that had seen the metric push past 530 basis points following domestic market noise and rising US Treasury yields.
Financial analysts point to multiple domestic and external catalysts for the shift. Fernando Marull, partner at FMyA, noted that private estimates placing August inflation below 2% and a soy price recovery reaching $560.000 per ton on data from the Rosario Board of Trade provided essential relief to domestic liquidity projections.
Washington Backing and Wall Street Equity Reactions
The external anchor for the market’s resilience materialized through direct diplomatic and economic reinforcement from Washington. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo, subsequently declaring that Argentina is leading a historical opportunity in the Western hemisphere, as noted by Infobae and Clarín. Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) emphasized that these statements enabled Argentine Global bonds to decouple partially from global risk aversion trends.
On the equities front, American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) trading in New York climbed into positive territory for the third rueda. Market leaders included Cresud, which jumped 3,9%, alongside Central Puerto, Corporación América, and Edenor, pushing the local S&P Merval index to 3.091.689,02 units, or $1.940,19 when adjusted via the contado con liquidación exchange rate at 1.593,04 pesos per dollar.
Foreign Exchange Stability and Corporate Outlook
Foreign exchange markets remained relatively subdued while the debt metrics improved. The wholesale official dollar dipped to 1.512 pesos, holding roughly 20% below the upper boundary of the official trading band established at 1.882,53 pesos. Meanwhile, the MEP dollar held stable at 1.534,71 pesos, according to Ámbito Financiero.
