Amien Rais Urges Prabowo to Stay Until 2029: Controversy & Political Fallout

Indonesian opposition leader Amien Rais has publicly backed President-elect Prabowo Subianto’s candidacy for a second term through 2029, escalating a political showdown that could reshape Indonesia’s governance and economic stability. The demand, made during a June 11 press conference in Jakarta, follows a series of legal challenges against Prabowo’s inner circle, including the removal of two key aides—Agus Subiyanto and Listyo Sigit—from his campaign team. Analysts warn this move could deepen institutional tensions, with implications for regional infrastructure projects and corporate compliance in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

Why is Amien Rais pushing for Prabowo’s extended term—and what does it mean for Indonesia?

Amien Rais, a veteran politician and former chair of Indonesia’s largest Islamic organization, Nahdlatul Ulama, framed his support as a call to “give Prabowo a chance” to deliver on his promises. His intervention comes as the Indonesian Constitutional Court reviews petitions to disqualify Prabowo’s running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, over alleged age fraud. Legal experts say the court’s decision—expected by mid-July—could trigger mass protests or a constitutional crisis.

“This is not just about Prabowo’s presidency; it’s about the legitimacy of the entire electoral process,” said Dr. Budi Hernawan, a constitutional law professor at the University of Indonesia. “If the court rules against Gibran, it will set a dangerous precedent for future elections, and businesses operating in Indonesia will face heightened regulatory uncertainty.”

The demand for Prabowo’s extended term also reflects broader concerns about Indonesia’s political stability. Since his 2024 election victory, Prabowo has faced criticism over his handling of economic reforms and corruption allegations targeting his associates. Rais’ intervention may signal an attempt to consolidate support ahead of potential legal battles, but it risks alienating reformist factions within the ruling coalition.

What’s at stake: Legal battles, economic fallout, and regional infrastructure

Prabowo’s campaign has already been rocked by the removal of two high-profile aides—Agus Subiyanto (his son-in-law) and Listyo Sigit (a former military intelligence officer)—amid allegations of interference in the 2024 election. Their departures came after the Indonesian National Police recommended criminal charges against them for alleged vote-buying schemes. The fallout has left Prabowo’s team scrambling to rebuild trust with investors and international partners.

For businesses operating in Indonesia, the uncertainty is palpable. A 2026 report by the Indonesian Investment Authority warned that political instability could deter $12 billion in planned foreign direct investment (FDI) in infrastructure projects, particularly in Java and Sumatra. “Companies are already pulling back from long-term contracts until the legal environment stabilizes,” said Sarah Chen, a Jakarta-based partner at Klu International Law Firm. “The last thing they need is another constitutional crisis.”

In Jakarta’s Central Business District, where foreign embassies and multinational corporations are headquartered, diplomats are privately discussing contingency plans. The U.S. Embassy in Indonesia has issued internal advisories to American firms, urging them to diversify supply chains away from politically exposed entities. Meanwhile, local chambers of commerce are advising members to engage corporate crisis management consultants to navigate potential sanctions or reputational risks.

A timeline of the crisis—and what happens next

• June 2024: Prabowo Subianto wins Indonesia’s presidential election amid allegations of irregularities.
• January 2025: Agus Subiyanto and Listyo Sigit are removed from Prabowo’s campaign team following police investigations into election interference.
• March 2026: The Constitutional Court begins reviewing petitions to disqualify Gibran Rakabuming Raka over age fraud claims.
• June 11, 2026: Amien Rais publicly calls for Prabowo to remain in power until 2029, framing it as a “test of national unity.”
• July 2026 (expected): Constitutional Court issues ruling on Gibran’s eligibility, with potential for mass protests or legal challenges.

The next 60 days will be critical. If the court rules against Gibran, Prabowo’s presidency could face immediate legitimacy challenges. Legal experts predict protests in major cities, including Jakarta, Surabaya, and Medan, where opposition groups have already mobilized. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s central bank has signaled it may intervene to stabilize the rupiah, which has weakened by 3% against the dollar since the election controversy began.

Who benefits—and who loses—in this political standoff?

Amien Rais’ intervention has divided Indonesia’s political elite. Supporters argue it’s a necessary move to prevent a power vacuum, while critics accuse Rais of overreach. The Kompas newspaper reported that hardline factions within Nahdlatul Ulama are pushing for a “unity government” to avoid further instability. However, reformist groups like the Indonesian Democracy Forum (FDI) have condemned Rais’ stance as an attempt to “entrench authoritarianism.”

For businesses, the risks are clear:

• Foreign investors may delay projects in sectors like mining and renewable energy until the legal environment clarifies.
• Local contractors tied to Prabowo’s allies could face reputational damage if corruption investigations expand.
• Multinational corporations with operations in Indonesia are reviewing their exposure to politically connected suppliers.

In response, firms are increasingly turning to compliance advisory firms to audit their supply chains and risk management consultants to assess political risk exposure. “The last election cycle taught us that political instability isn’t just a legal issue—it’s a financial one,” said Marcus Lee, a partner at EY Indonesia. “Companies that don’t prepare now will regret it later.”

The bigger picture: How this crisis could reshape Indonesia’s future

Amien Rais’ call for Prabowo’s extended term is more than a political maneuver—it’s a test of Indonesia’s democratic resilience. The country’s 2019 election, which saw massive protests against then-candidate Prabowo, set a precedent for civic engagement. Today, young voters—who make up 40% of the electorate—are watching closely. A 2026 survey by the Indonesian Survey Center found that 62% of respondents under 30 oppose any extension of Prabowo’s term, fearing it will undermine democratic norms.

For Indonesia’s regions, the stakes are equally high. In Papua, where separatist movements have gained traction, political instability could reignite tensions. Meanwhile, in Bali, tourism-dependent businesses are bracing for potential boycotts if the crisis escalates. “The last thing we need is another round of protests disrupting our economy,” said Wayan Suardana, president of the Bali Chamber of Commerce. “We’re already seeing cancellations from European tourists who don’t want to risk being caught in the middle of political unrest.”

The Constitutional Court’s decision in July will be the first major test. If it rules in favor of disqualifying Gibran, Prabowo’s presidency could face immediate challenges, including calls for a new election. Legal experts warn that such a scenario would trigger a constitutional crisis, with no clear path forward. “This is not just about one man’s presidency—it’s about the future of Indonesia’s democracy,” said Dr. Hernawan. “The court’s ruling will either strengthen or weaken the rule of law for years to come.”

For businesses and citizens alike, the message is clear: prepare for turbulence. Whether it’s securing legal counsel to navigate potential sanctions, diversifying supply chains, or monitoring regional stability, the next few months will demand vigilance. As Indonesia’s political landscape shifts, those who act now will be best positioned to weather the storm.

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