Warsaw – Poland’s ruling coalition appears to lack a parliamentary majority capable of governing effectively, according to an analysis by Jarosław Flis, a sociologist at Jagiellonian University and polling expert. Dr. Flis calculated the distribution of seats based on current polling data, finding that the Civic Coalition (KO) with 186 mandates and the Left (Lewica) with 26, would be unable to form a governing majority.
However, Flis suggests that the political landscape could shift if the Polish People’s Party (PSL) were to surpass the electoral threshold in future elections, potentially adding to the coalition’s numbers. He also noted the potential impact of the Razem party. According to a recent IBRiS poll, a potential governing coalition could be formed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party with 131 mandates, Konfederacja with 74 and the Confederation Crown of Poland with 43, totaling 248 seats.
“The initial strengths of the October 15th coalition are dominant, and if they were to unite on three lists, they would achieve a better result than the three right-wing parties combined,” Professor Flis stated.
Despite internal conflicts and declining poll numbers, the Law and Justice (PiS) party is reportedly aiming for a standalone government. The party is focusing on polarizing issues, including opposition to the SAFE Act and criticism of the government’s handling of the evacuation of Polish citizens from the Middle East following the attack on Iran by Israel, according to reports.
Jacek Sasin, a PiS politician, expressed confidence in the party’s chances, stating, “We have a chance to win and govern independently. What we have is absolutely possible, it is within our reach.” Speaking on Kanał Zero, Sasin dismissed the relevance of current polls, citing the example of Karol Nawrocki’s unexpected performance in the presidential elections. “Polls do not reflect any reality, they are meant to create reality,” he said, adding that internal party polling shows better results than public surveys, although acknowledging that support for PiS is lower than in the previous elections, but “not dramatically so.”
PiS intends to resolve internal disputes and nominate a prime ministerial candidate to shape the public debate and boost the party’s support. Mariusz Błaszczak announced during a press conference that Jarosław Kaczyński, the party leader, will present the candidate for prime minister this Saturday in Kraków, “of course, in the event that the nation entrusts Law and Justice with this privilege after the parliamentary elections.”
Recent reporting from Rzeczpospolita also indicates that Szymon Hołownia is considering withdrawing from Polish politics, though the reasons behind this potential decision remain unclear.
