Within 24 hours of the U.S. And Israel launching strikes against Iran on Saturday, the prediction market Polymarket transformed into a live trading floor for geopolitical risk, with contracts emerging to forecast everything from ceasefire timelines to the potential collapse of the Iranian regime. The speed and granularity of these markets are notable, allowing bettors to wager not only on escalation but also on specific outcomes like the week a conflict might end, potential successors to Iran’s Supreme Leader, and the possibility of a U.S. Ground invasion by a defined date.
Polymarket’s most heavily traded completed market, “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?” resolved to 100% following the confirmation of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death by Iranian state television. The contract attracted $45 million in trading volume, becoming one of the platform’s most significant geopolitical markets. A trader using the account name ‘Curseaaaaaaa’ realized a profit of $757,000 on a “Yes” bet, although four other traders each earned six-figure returns. The market’s probability had fluctuated between 25% and 50% in the months leading up to the announcement, then surged to 100% upon confirmation of Khamenei’s death.
The largest active market, “US strikes Iran by…?” launched on December 22, has now accumulated $529 million in total volume, establishing itself as one of the largest single markets in Polymarket’s history. Trading volume on the February 28 date reached $89.6 million. Each daily contract from February 28 through early March resolved as “Yes” following the strikes, rewarding those who had bet on that specific date. The market’s rules stipulated that only drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil by U.S. Forces would trigger a payout, excluding interceptions, cyberattacks, and ground operations.
Current trading indicates limited expectation of an immediate ceasefire. The market predicting a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 2 is priced at just 4%, rising to 15% by March 6, but increasing to 61% by March 31 and 78% by April 30. The market “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” currently sits at 54%, a substantial increase from the low-20s seen in previous months. The “Next Supreme Leader of Iran” market assigns a 30% probability to the position being abolished altogether, suggesting a significant possibility that the theocratic structure may not survive. Ali Larijani, a former parliament speaker, currently leads among named candidates at 21%.
Markets concerning a potential U.S. Ground invasion are also attracting substantial volume. “Will the U.S. Invade Iran before 2027?” is trading at 19% with $207,000 in volume, while “US forces enter Iran by March 7” is at 28% with $2 million traded. Polymarket’s functionality offers a capability unavailable in traditional financial markets; while equity and oil futures markets were closed until Sunday evening, Polymarket allowed participants to take positions on Iranian regime change throughout the weekend, with real-time pricing reflecting the views of thousands of traders.
Prior to the strikes, analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six wallets that collectively profited $1.2 million by betting on a U.S. Strike on Iran by February 28. These wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack, focused specifically on the February 28 contract, and purchased “Yes” shares shortly before the military operation commenced. The largest wallet transformed approximately $61,000 into over $493,000, while a second generated roughly $120,000 from a $30,000 investment.
Polymarket acknowledged the implications of this activity, adding a statement to its Middle East markets on Sunday. The platform stated that its “promise…is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts,” and that, after speaking with those directly affected by the attacks, it found that prediction markets “could grant them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.”
